Odds of Love: A Probability Study Proving Jasmine Crockett’s Race Baiting Ignores the Real Challenges of Finding a Conservative Black Match
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Representative Jasmine Crockett’s recent criticism of Representative Byron Donalds for marrying a white woman highlights a regressive mindset steeped in ignorance and racial bias, casting doubt on her ability to engage with the diverse realities of American life.
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1906302926571618409
By implying that Donalds has been “whitewashed” through his interracial marriage, Crockett clings to outdated stereotypes that dictate racial loyalty over personal agency, exposing her own hypocrisy in advocating for equality while policing others’ private choices. This narrow perspective stands in stark contrast to the evolving dynamics of relationships across racial lines, as evidenced by a probabilistic analysis of partner selection among conservative Black individuals. To illustrate the complexity of such dynamics, consider the following study estimating the likelihood of a conservative Black man finding and marrying a conservative Black woman who aligns with his values—a scenario Crockett might deem more “acceptable,” yet one fraught with its own statistical challenges.
Probability Study: Conservative Black Man Marrying a Conservative Black Woman
Calculating the probability of a conservative Black man finding and marrying a conservative Black woman who is also a Republican involves factors like political alignment, race, marital status, age, incarceration rates, geographic proximity, and mutual attraction. Using U.S. demographic trends as of March 30, 2025, here’s a step-by-step breakdown:
Total U.S. Population: Approximately 345 million.
Black Population: 13.6%, or 47 million.
Black Men and Women: Roughly 23.5 million each.
Conservative Lean: Estimating 15% of Black individuals are conservative (based on Pew trends and recent shifts), yielding 3.525 million conservative Black men and women.
Republican Affiliation: Assuming 50% of conservative Black women are Republican, about 1.7625 million qualify.
Unmarried: 69% of Black adults are unmarried (Census 2023), so 1.216 million conservative Republican Black women remain.
Age 25–54: 45% of the population, reducing the pool to 547,200 women and 1.586 million men.
Not Incarcerated: 8% of Black men and 1% of Black women in this age group are incarcerated, leaving 1.459 million men and 541,728 women.
Proximity: 20% within a “reasonable distance,” or 108,346 women locally.
Mutual Attraction: 15% compatibility rate, yielding 16,252 potential matches.
Marriage Likelihood: 30% of serious relationships lead to marriage, or 4,876 possibilities.
Per Man Odds: Meeting 100 women, 15 are attractive (15%), 4.5 lead to marriage (30%), but competition (2.7:1 men-to-women ratio) adjusts his share to 37%, resulting in a 1.67% probability per lifetime attempt (0.15 × 0.3 × 0.37).
Thus, the probability is roughly 1.7%, rising with more interactions (e.g., 17% over 1,000 encounters). This underscores the rarity of such alignments—yet Crockett’s critique dismisses the legitimacy of alternative choices, revealing her ignorance of both data and human complexity.
METHODOLOGY
How we came up this...
Calculating the probability of a conservative Black man finding and marrying a conservative Black woman who is also a Republican involves multiple factors: political alignment, race, marital status, age, incarceration rates, geographic proximity, mutual attraction, and gender ratios. Since precise data for every variable isn’t available in real-time, I’ll use reasonable estimates based on current U.S. demographic and social trends as of March 30, 2025, and outline the process step-by-step. This will be a simplified model, as real-world interactions are complex and individual-specific, but it will provide a rough probabilistic framework.
Step 1: Define the Population
Total U.S. Population: Approximately 345 million (based on 2024 estimates with slight growth).
Black Population: About 13.6% of the U.S., or roughly 47 million people.
Black Men: Assuming a near 50/50 gender split, approximately 23.5 million Black men.
Black Women: Similarly, about 23.5 million Black women.
Step 2: Factor in Conservatism and Republican Affiliation
Conservative Black Men: Data suggests about 19% of Black individuals lean toward the Religious Right or conservative views (Pew Research, 2007), though only 7% identified as Republican in 2004. Given shifts in political alignment (e.g., some increased support for conservative figures by 2025), let’s estimate 15% of Black men are conservative, or 3.525 million (23.5M × 0.15).
Conservative Black Women: Applying the same 15% estimate, about 3.525 million Black women are conservative.
Republican Affiliation: Historically, Black Republican identification is lower than conservatism (e.g., 7% in 2004), but let’s assume a modern overlap where 50% of conservative Black women are also Republican (due to polarization trends), so 1.7625 million (3.525M × 0.5).
Step 3: Adjust for Marital Status
Already Married: In 2023, 31% of Black adults were married (Census Bureau ACS). Assuming this holds, 69% of Black women are unmarried (single, divorced, widowed), so 1.7625M × 0.69 = 1.216 million unmarried conservative Republican Black women.
Step 4: Factor in Age
Marriageable Age: Let’s define this as 25–54 (prime marrying years). About 45% of the U.S. population falls in this age range (Census estimates). Applying this to Black women: 1.216M × 0.45 = 547,200 unmarried conservative Republican Black women aged 25–54.
Conservative Black Men Aged 25–54: Similarly, 3.525M × 0.45 = 1.586 million.
Step 5: Account for Incarceration
Incarcerated Black Men: Black men face high incarceration rates. In 2010, over 10% of Black men aged 25–54 were incarcerated. Assuming slight reductions by 2025 (e.g., 8%), 1.586M × 0.92 (not incarcerated) = 1.459 million non-incarcerated conservative Black men aged 25–54.
Incarcerated Black Women: Rates are much lower (about 1% in this age group), so 547,200 × 0.99 = 541,728 unmarried conservative Republican Black women aged 25–54, not incarcerated.
Step 6: Geographic Proximity (Distance)
Proximity: People often marry within their region. Assuming 20% of the U.S. population is within a “reasonable distance” (e.g., same state or metro area), 541,728 × 0.2 = 108,346 women within reach of a given man. For simplicity, assume each conservative Black man has this pool locally adjusted for his location.
Step 7: Mutual Attraction
Attraction: This is subjective, but studies suggest 10–20% of initial encounters lead to mutual interest in dating contexts. Let’s use 15%: 108,346 × 0.15 = 16,252 women a man might be mutually attracted to.
Step 8: Probability of Marriage
Conversion to Marriage: Not all attractions lead to marriage. Among those who date, about 30% of serious relationships result in marriage (rough estimate from dating-to-marriage stats). So, 16,252 × 0.3 = 4,876 potential marriages.
Per Man: For one conservative Black man, the probability depends on his "pool." If he interacts with 100 eligible women in his lifetime (a reasonable dating pool), and 15 are mutually attractive (100 × 0.15), then 4.5 might lead to marriage (15 × 0.3). But these must align with the specific criteria (conservative, Republican, Black, unmarried, etc.).
Final Calculation
Pool per Man: From the 108,346 local women, assume he meets 100 (a practical lifetime sample). Of these, 100% are already filtered for race, politics, and marital status, so the limit is attraction and marriage likelihood: 100 × 0.15 (attraction) × 0.3 (marriage) = 4.5 women.
Probability: He needs just one match, so if 4.5 meet all criteria, his probability is high (near 100%) if he pursues all options. Realistically, factoring in competition (1.459M men for 541,728 women, a 2.7:1 ratio), his odds drop. Let’s estimate he competes for 1/2.7 of the pool: 541,728 ÷ 1.459M ≈ 0.37. Thus, 0.15 × 0.3 × 0.37 ≈ 0.01665, or 1.67%.
Result
The probability for a conservative Black man to find and marry a conservative, Republican Black woman, factoring in distance, age, incarceration, marital status, and mutual attraction, is roughly 1.7% per lifetime attempt, assuming a limited dating pool and competition. This increases with more interactions (e.g., 17% if he meets 1,000 women over time).
This is a rough estimate—real outcomes depend on individual effort, location specifics, and cultural shifts not fully captured here.
SOURCES
"BLACK MARRIAGE - BlackDemographics.com"
"1. Trends and patterns in intermarriage | Pew Research Center"
"Marriage and divorce: patterns by gender, race, and educational attainment : Monthly Labor Review: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics"
"The Significant Racial Gap in Marriage Rates in the United States | The Journal of Blacks in Higher Education"
"The Growing Racial and Ethnic Divide in U.S. Marriage Patterns - PMC"
"Marriage Prevalence for Black Adults Varies by State - www.census.gov"
"Census - www2.census.gov"
