As the 2024 presidential race heats up, the mainstream media has been working overtime to portray Kamala Harris as surging in the polls while painting Donald Trump’s campaign as floundering. However, when we dig deeper into the data and consider recent strategic developments, it becomes clear that the media’s narrative is far from accurate. With just 81 days remaining until Election Day, the reality is that Trump is holding a solid position, supported by strong polling and strategic campaign moves.
Current Polling Landscape
The latest polls from August 16, 2024, indicate that Trump continues to lead Harris in several key areas:
- Rasmussen Reports: Trump leads Harris 49% to 45%.
- Democracy Institute: Trump holds a 48% to 44% advantage over Harris.
- RMG Polling with Leaners: Trump is at 49%, with Harris trailing at 47%.
- Fox News Poll: Even with its left-leaning reputation, Fox News has Trump slightly ahead at 50% to 49%.
These numbers are bolstered by Trump’s performance in crucial voter demographics:
- Independents: Trump has an 8-point lead among independents, a group critical to winning the election.
- Black Voters: Trump is receiving 26% support among black voters, an unprecedented figure for a Republican candidate.
- Latino Voters: Trump commands 52% of the Latino vote, giving him a majority in this important demographic.
It’s also important to note that Rasmussen Reports, one of the few truly independent polling organizations, has consistently been one of the most accurate over the past ten election cycles. Unlike many other pollsters, Rasmussen’s business depends entirely on their accuracy, which has made them a trusted source for reliable data. Their latest numbers, showing Trump with a solid lead, suggest that the media’s portrayal of a collapsing Trump campaign may be more fiction than fact.
Strategic Campaign Developments
In addition to strong polling, Trump’s campaign has made several key moves that should encourage his supporters. Cory Lewandowski, who was instrumental in Trump’s 2016 victory, has rejoined the campaign. Known for his ability to keep the team focused, disciplined, and on message, Lewandowski’s involvement is expected to help ensure the campaign remains sharp as it enters the final stretch.
Another significant asset to the campaign is Senator JD Vance, who has been crucial in highlighting policy issues. Vance’s command of policy details and his ability to articulate complex issues in a way that resonates with voters—especially independents—has been a tremendous asset. His involvement ensures that the Trump campaign not only stays on message but also effectively communicates the detailed policies and solutions that voters care about.
Kennedy’s Impact and the Myth of Swing Voters
Another narrative pushed by the media is that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presence in the race could significantly impact the outcome. However, current data suggests that Kennedy’s inclusion—or exclusion—does not substantially help or hurt either candidate. The reality is that there are very few true swing voters left in this election. Most voters have already made up their minds, meaning this race will likely come down to turnout—a contest where Trump has historically excelled.
Trump Has Never Been in a Better Position at this Point in an Election
In mid-August of both 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump was facing much steeper deficits in the polls compared to his current standing in 2024. In 2016, according to RealClearPolitics (RCP), Trump was trailing Hillary Clinton by an average of about 7 points at this time. Fast forward to 2020, and Trump was again behind Joe Biden by nearly 8 points in the RCP average. Despite these significant gaps, Trump went on to defy expectations in 2016, securing a historic victory, and in 2020, he garnered more votes than any sitting president in history, coming within a razor-thin margin of victory. These past performances underscore a key aspect of Trump’s political strength: his remarkable ability to drive voter turnout. Even when the polls suggested otherwise, Trump consistently outperformed expectations on Election Day. This turnout advantage is a crucial factor in his current 2024 campaign, where he’s in a far better position than in previous cycles. As history has shown, Trump’s base is not only loyal but highly motivated—a dynamic that could prove decisive once again.
Consider in both 2016 and 2020, Trump consistently outperformed his polling numbers by an average of 5 points on Election Day, driven by a highly motivated voter base. His ability to generate turnout, especially among voters who may not typically participate in elections, is one of his greatest strengths. As we approach November, this turnout machine will be critical to securing victory.
Election Integrity and the Road Ahead
While Trump’s position is strong, this is not the time for complacency. The upcoming Democratic National Convention, the debates, and other key events could still influence the race. Moreover, concerns about election integrity remain, with many Trump supporters wary of potential irregularities that could affect the results.
The 2024 election is shaping up to be one of the toughest and most closely contested in recent history. The media, eager to shape the narrative, may be overstating how poorly Trump is doing, but that doesn’t mean the challenges ahead should be underestimated. Trump’s campaign must remain vigilant, and his supporters should be prepared for a hard-fought battle.
Conclusion: The Real Story of 2024
This election hinges on voter turnout—a battleground where Trump has consistently shown strength. While the race is sure to be fiercely contested, the data does not support the narrative that Trump is losing ground. The campaign's priorities should remain focused on sustaining momentum, safeguarding election integrity, and staying prepared for pivotal moments like the upcoming debates. Though the media might not be presenting the full picture, the numbers and the campaign’s recent strategic decisions indicate that Trump is very much still in the fight.
