As we head into Day 4 of the Democratic National Convention, with Vice President Kamala Harris set to give her keynote speech, the challenges she faces are stark and glaring. Harris, though technically not the incumbent president, is being treated as such, a strategy that presents significant hurdles. The Democrats are attempting to navigate a contradictory narrative that’s difficult to sustain: they want Harris to promise solutions to problems she has been a part of for the last four years.
Just last month, in July, the Democrats were touting the economy under Biden as strong, a typical stance for an incumbent defending their record. However, as August has unfolded and the economic realities have become harder to ignore, the message has shifted drastically. Now, Harris is being positioned as the candidate who will fix the very economy her administration claimed was thriving just weeks ago. This flip-flop is problematic because it ignores the fact that Harris has been in office the entire time and has done little to address the issues she now claims to be able to fix.
This inconsistency is not lost on voters, and it's reflected in the current polling and betting markets. Historically, national conventions provide a significant poll boost to candidates—Hillary Clinton saw a 10-point bump in 2016, and even Biden experienced a surge in 2020. Yet, as we enter Day 4 of the DNC, instead of gaining ground, Harris has seen the gap widen in favor of Trump. Betting markets, which initially favored Harris, have swung dramatically towards Trump, now showing him with a seven-point lead—a double-digit swing in just a few days.
This shift highlights a growing skepticism among the electorate. Voters are questioning how Harris can promise to solve the nation's problems when she has been part of the administration that created or exacerbated them. The recent jobs report "correction," revealing that job growth was overstated by nearly a million jobs since March 2024—a 30% correction—only deepens concerns about the economy and the administration's transparency. This revision reignites fears of a recession, which historically spells doom for incumbent administrations during elections.
The Democratic Party’s messaging struggles are further compounded by their own convention strategy. Despite controlling the White House for 12 of the last 16 years, they have focused their attacks almost exclusively on Trump, mentioning him over 140 times during the convention while barely addressing voter concerns like the economy, inflation, and crime. Inflation, the number one issue for voters, was mentioned just three times. This lack of focus on real issues leaves Harris in a precarious position as she steps up to make her case.
The challenge for Harris is clear: she is being asked to fix problems she had a hand in creating, all while being treated like an incumbent in a race where she lacks the typical advantages of one. As the convention draws to a close, it’s becoming evident that this contradictory approach is not resonating with voters, who are increasingly skeptical of a candidate who wants it both ways—claiming credit for successes while distancing herself from failures.
