The 2024 presidential race is heating up, and if you’ve been watching the mainstream media, you might think Kamala Harris is running away with the election. But according to new data, that narrative couldn’t be further from the truth.
Trump vs. Harris: The Real Numbers
In the latest Rasmussen Reports poll, conducted with over 5,000 national respondents, Donald Trump still leads Kamala Harris by 3 points, 49% to 46%. This is despite the media’s portrayal of Harris gaining unstoppable momentum. Notably, these numbers have held strong even as other pollsters seem to be avoiding reporting data that doesn't fit the preferred narrative.
Key Findings from the Poll:
Gender Breakdown: Trump is leading by 3 points among men and has even managed to take a slight 2-point lead among women—a demographic that has been challenging for him in the past.
Age Groups: Among younger voters (18-29), Trump is nearly tied, losing by just 2 points. He does even better with voters aged 30-39.
Race and Ethnicity: Trump is winning the white vote by 10 points, securing nearly 29% of the Black vote, and losing the Hispanic vote by just 2 points. This shows a significant improvement compared to his performance in 2020.
Education: Trump has a strong lead among voters with a high school diploma or some college education but loses among those with graduate degrees by 23 points.
Citizenship: Interestingly, the poll revealed that 3% of likely voters admitted they were not U.S. citizens yet still voted in 2020. This is a significant finding that only Rasmussen Reports seems to be highlighting.
3% Non-Citizens Admitting They Voted: What It Means for Trump’s 2024 Chances
One of the most eye-opening revelations from the latest Rasmussen Reports poll is that 3% of respondents—equating to roughly 121 likely voters—admitted they were not U.S. citizens yet claimed to have voted in the 2020 election. This startling statistic highlights ongoing concerns about election integrity, an issue that has been central to Donald Trump’s campaign.
Despite this potential pool of illegal votes, Trump is still in a strong position for 2024. The Rasmussen poll shows Trump leading Kamala Harris by 2 points nationally, even with the possibility of non-citizen voting affecting the outcome. This resilience underscores Trump’s broad appeal and strong base of support, which remains unwavering despite challenges from within and outside the political system.
What Does This Mean?
Despite the media’s attempts to paint a different picture, Donald Trump is holding his ground and even making gains in key demographics. His appeal to younger voters, non-white voters, and those without a college degree is stronger than ever. This resilience is a clear sign that the race is far from over and that Trump supporters have every reason to feel hopeful.
The RFK Endorsement: A Game Changer?
Just as the polls were being finalized, RFK Jr. publicly endorsed Trump, praising his efforts to tackle childhood health issues. This endorsement could potentially boost Trump’s standing, especially among independent voters and younger demographics who resonate with RFK’s message.
State of the Swing States
Rasmussen also released polling data from key swing states like Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Here, Trump is either tied or within the margin of error, showing he’s performing much better than he did against Biden in 2020. This suggests a strong chance for Trump to secure these critical states.
Trump Narrowly Trails in RCP Polls—But It's a Far Cry from 2020
Despite the challenges and a media narrative favoring Kamala Harris, Donald Trump is currently trailing by only 1.5 points in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average. While some might view this as a disadvantage, it’s important to put these numbers into context.
Back in 2020, at this same point in the race, Trump was facing a much steeper uphill battle. Nationally, he was down by an average of 6.5 points to Joe Biden, and the situation in key swing states looked even more dire. Rasmussen Reports data from that period showed Trump trailing significantly in most battleground states. For example, the transcript reveals that in some states, Trump was down by as much as 7 points compared to now, where he is either tied or within a 1-3 point margin in states like Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
This sharp improvement in Trump’s polling numbers suggests that he is in a far stronger position now than he was four years ago. Even with a narrow deficit in the RCP average, the current trends indicate that Trump’s campaign is more competitive than it was in 2020, especially in critical swing states where he is outperforming his previous numbers by 6-7 points. This shift could be a crucial factor as the 2024 race continues to unfold.
Conclusion
The mainstream media may be pushing a narrative that Kamala Harris is surging, but the real data tells a different story. Trump’s consistent lead, especially in key demographics and swing states, paints a picture of a race that is very much alive. With solid support across various voter groups and the recent RFK Jr. endorsement, Trump supporters have plenty of reasons to stay optimistic as we move closer to the 2024 election.
For more detailed breakdowns of the poll numbers, check out the full report from Rasmussen Reports.
This article is based on data from the Rasmussen Reports poll, which has been a reliable source of information despite frequent criticism from mainstream media outlets. The poll was conducted with over 5,000 national respondents, ensuring a high level of accuracy with a margin of error of about 2%. For those interested in diving deeper, full cross-tab results will be available soon, allowing you to explore the data in greater detail.
