Mark Robinson, North Carolina’s Lieutenant Governor, is facing a tough gubernatorial race, with allegations swirling around him. Despite these challenges, Robinson has consistently denied all accusations. But in a state that has leaned Republican in recent elections, there are several key reasons why Robinson can still win, even with the negative press, especially if he capitalizes on the strong support for Donald Trump and the "coattail effect."
The Trump Factor and Coattail Effect
North Carolina has proven to be a key battleground, but it remains a state where Donald Trump has maintained significant support. In fact, Trump is projected to win the state by about 7.5 points, according to the model used by On Point Politics, which was one of the most accurate aggregate pollsters of the 2020 election. A massive Trump win, especially by a margin of 7 points or more, could have profound down-ballot effects, benefiting candidates like Robinson.
The "coattail effect" refers to a scenario where a popular candidate at the top of the ticket—like Trump—boosts the electoral fortunes of candidates further down the ballot. For Robinson, this effect could be decisive. MAGA voters are known for their loyalty to Trump, and they are notoriously difficult to poll. Their turnout often surprises pollsters, as seen in previous elections. If Robinson runs closely aligned with Trump, a significant win by Trump in North Carolina could be enough to pull Robinson over the finish line, overcoming the allegations that have been leveled against him.
MAGA Voter Loyalty and Empathy
MAGA voters are intensely loyal to Trump and have historically seen him as a victim of unfair attacks by the political establishment. This perception could extend to Robinson if he effectively ties his campaign to Trump’s, positioning himself as another conservative figure under siege by "dirty tricks" from opponents. Robinson's strong denial of the allegations can resonate with these voters, who are likely to view the accusations as part of the broader political attack on their movement.
Additionally, MAGA voters tend to focus on larger issues such as the economy, national security, and preserving traditional values, rather than on controversies surrounding candidates. For many of these voters, allegations that Robinson has emphatically denied may be enough to sway their support, particularly when they see Robinson as part of the solution to the problems facing the country. The broader political narrative—that these allegations are distractions from the real issues—could work in Robinson's favor.
The Path to Victory
Despite polls showing Josh Stein up by 8 or more points, On Point Politics still projects Robinson as a lean to win, with Robinson up by 0.6%. Polls often miss key voter groups, and North Carolina's political dynamics could create a surge in support, helping Robinson overcome these margins. In a state like North Carolina, where the top of the ticket is projected to win by over 7 points, Robinson’s alignment with that momentum could generate the voter empathy and turnout needed to overcome the allegations. If voter turnout follows past patterns, Robinson could defy the numbers and close the gap on election day with strong grassroots support.
Despite facing allegations, Robinson’s path to victory remains open. If he continues to deny the accusations, while emphasizing his shared values with the MAGA movement, a substantial Trump win could lift him to victory through the coattail effect. With MAGA voters remaining loyal and difficult to poll, Robinson has a viable chance to capture the governorship in the 2024 election.