The recent loss in Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race stung, no doubt but the bigger picture tells a vastly different story. Far from being a sign of weakness, it was a wake-up call for targeted action in one battleground state, while the GOP racks up win after win elsewhere. As Dr. Steve Turley laid out, Republicans are winning the war, even if we lost a battle in Wisconsin. Here's why the conservative movement is still surging and why the Democrats should be worried.

1. 6 of 9 Special Elections: GOP Dominates Post-Trump Announcement

Since President Trump declared his candidacy on November 5, the GOP has won 6 out of 9 special elections nationwide. These weren’t minor races, they spanned congressional and state levels, reinforcing that the MAGA coalition is alive and thriving.

Turley calls it like it is: “We’re the Super Bowl champs. We just lost a scrimmage game.” That perspective matters: big picture, the Right is still ahead on the scoreboard.

2. Florida Is Now Deep Red – Massive Wins, Even with Low Turnout

In two special congressional elections, Republicans Randy Fine and Jimmy Patronis won by double digits, even as turnout was down by 60% from the November general.

Democrats threw more than $10 million at these races and still lost badly. Florida, once the quintessential swing state, has become solidly Republican thanks to the post-COVID “leftugees” who fled blue-state lockdowns.

The message from Florida? Republicans are winning without needing high turnout—imagine what happens with it.

3. Wisconsin Loss Masks a Huge Conservative Victory: Voter ID Amendment PASSES

Yes, Brad Schimel lost the Supreme Court race but Wisconsin voters passed a constitutional amendment to require voter ID, and they passed it overwhelmingly: 60% support.

Even Elon Musk called it “the most important vote of the night.” Why? Because voter ID has long-term implications that go beyond any single race. Polls consistently show that 60–80% of voters across both parties support voter ID laws. And now, in Wisconsin, that’s locked into their constitution.

This is a foundational win. With voter ID secured, future elections in Wisconsin just got harder for Democrats to manipulate.

4. Understanding the Wisconsin Shift and What It Means

While Wisconsin has swung back and forth in presidential elections, off-year and state-level races have trended center-left. Why?

• Mass GOP voter exodus: Many conservatives left the state during COVID.

• No partisan early vote tracking: Unlike Florida, Wisconsin doesn’t report partisan ballot returns.

• Low GOP turnout: Rural conservatives didn’t show up.

• Dem + Independent alignment: Swing voters moved heavily left in this race.

Still, conservatives won on the core issue, voter ID, and that’s what will matter long-term. Plus, the 2024 presidential turnout will be a different game entirely, with Trump on the ballot.

5. Building the Machine: GOTV Must Be the Focus

Turley echoed what strategists like Rich Baris and Scott Presler have said for years: the GOP must build state-level ground games to turn out the new Republican base. Today’s GOP is the party of low-propensity voters, the same working-class folks Democrats used to rely on.

That means:

• Investing in ballot chasing where legal

• Building state GOP turnout machines

• Targeting independents with winning national issues (like voter ID, border security, inflation)

Until that infrastructure is in place, off-year elections like Wisconsin will remain vulnerable. But the momentum and coalition strength are clearly on the GOP’s side.

6. Grassroots Leaders Like Scott Presler Are Filling the Ground Game Gap

While some state GOP organizations still lag behind, conservative grassroots leaders are stepping up and doing the work. Scott Presler has become a household name for his relentless voter registration, door-knocking, and turnout efforts. But he’s not doing it alone. Cliff Maloney is mobilizing liberty-minded youth through Young Americans for Liberty, while Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point Action is building state-by-state infrastructure aimed at ballot harvesting where legal and getting out the vote. These grassroots patriots are filling the void left by weak GOP machines and they’re proving that the conservative movement doesn’t need permission from party elites to win.

7. The Blueprint for 2024 Is Already Working

Here’s what conservatives should take away:

• 6 of 9 special elections won

• Voter ID wins in a swing state

• Ballot security measures in general like voter ID are gaining traction

• Florida is locked in deep red

• Democrats wasting millions on failed races

• GOP coalition stronger than ever

• National issues like inflation, border security, and parental rights dominate the conversation

The Wisconsin loss was a setback but also a signal. A strong national agenda and a Trump-led ticket will bring conservatives back out in force. Add in a functional ground game, and the path to victory becomes clear.

Final Word: We’re Still the Champs

The Wisconsin court race was a reminder, not a defeat. With voter ID locked into law, 6 special election wins under our belt, and deep-red strongholds like Florida holding firm, the GOP has every reason to be confident.

This is the moment to regroup, organize, and push harder—not panic.

We’re still the champs. Let’s act like it.

The political establishment is stunned. The legacy media is scrambling. And the polling class? They’re quietly panicking.

In a development few thought possible, Donald J. Trump is not just surviving the political gauntlet of 2024 — he’s thriving. According to Rich Baris, the most accurate pollster of the last election cycle, Trump is experiencing a level of sustained approval and favorability that’s defying political precedent and sending shockwaves through both parties.

Trump’s Approval Defies the Odds

Despite relentless legal attacks, media smears, and a deeply polarized nation, Trump’s approval rating sits between +2 to +4 net positive, with a recent private poll landing at +3. At his peak, Baris notes, Trump soared to an astounding +18 during his "honeymoon phase" after announcing his return to the political arena.

“This is unprecedented,” said Baris. “For any Republican president (let alone a political outsider like Trump) to maintain this kind of sustained approval is almost unthinkable.”

A Favorability Flip That Has Democrats Rattled

Even more stunning is a historic inversion in Trump’s numbers. For the first time, Trump’s favorability now slightly exceeds his approval rating, a reversal of the long-standing dynamic where voters might approve of his job performance but express personal disdain.

“This tells us something seismic is happening,” explained Baris. “Not only are people acknowledging his effectiveness, they’re beginning to like him and that is a nightmare scenario for Democrats.”

The Reluctant Voter: Still Trump’s Trump Card

For years, Trump has wielded a rare political advantage: the ability to win over voters who don’t personally like him but vote for him anyway. Baris estimates 10–15% of Trump’s support comes from voters in this category — the so-called “reluctant voters.”

“They’ll tell you, ‘I can’t stand the tweets,’ or ‘I don’t like the way he talks,’” said Baris. “But then they say, ‘He was a damn good president.’ That pragmatic loyalty has always been his secret weapon.”

A Realignment in Real Time

Baris and Turley highlighted what appears to be an ongoing massive political realignment. Key demographic groups, once solidly Democratic, are breaking toward Trump in numbers that would’ve been unthinkable just a few cycles ago.

Among the shifts:

• Young men under 35, especially Gen Z males, are now among Trump’s most favorable age brackets.

• Black and Hispanic voters, particularly men, are showing consistent erosion in support for Democrats and a growing openness to Trump’s populist message.

• Working-class and non-white voters, disillusioned with Democratic leadership, are resonating more with Trump’s rhetoric of national strength, economic opportunity, and cultural tradition.

Trump’s alignment with figures like Elon Musk and his resonance in influencer and tech culture has also helped shift perceptions among younger voters, many of whom no longer look to Hollywood or legacy media for guidance.

GOP Struggles to Harness Trump’s Momentum

While Trump’s political engine is running full throttle, the GOP’s infrastructure is still sputtering. In Pennsylvania’s 36th district (which Trump carried by 15 points) Republicans lost a recent special election, a defeat Baris blames squarely on local party incompetence.

“There’s MAGA energy out there,” he said. “But the Republican Party isn’t always capable or even willing to harness it.”

He praised Florida and North Carolina as models of MAGA-oriented party governance, singling out Michael Whatley (newly elevated within the RNC) as someone who “gets it.”

Polling Establishment in Collapse

Baris also took a victory lap at the expense of legacy polling outfits like FiveThirtyEight, which has collapsed under new leadership. He slammed what he calls the “election mafia”, a club of pollsters who reward consensus over accuracy and penalize independent analysts like himself for breaking with the narrative.

“They gave me an R+7 lean just because I wasn’t off by seven points to the left like everyone else,” said Baris. “They punish you for being right if it goes against their ideology.”

Turnout Trends Turning Upside Down

In a dramatic shift, high voter turnout is no longer a guaranteed win for Democrats. In states like Wisconsin, red counties are showing turnout spikes, and it’s not clear Democrats can make up the difference.

“Normies are voting,” Baris quipped. “And normal people are Republicans now.”

He noted that low-propensity voters, once the core of Democrat victories, are increasingly outnumbered by consistent Trump-aligned voters who are turning out in bigger and bigger numbers.

Conclusion: The Realignment is Real

What we’re witnessing may be one of the most consequential political shifts in American history. Trump is attracting not just Republicans, but moderates, independents, young men, and minorities, the very groups Democrats long considered their firewall.

“This isn’t a statistical blip,” Baris insisted. “It’s a political realignment.”

And if it continues, the media’s long-held assumptions (about voter behavior, about demographics, about Donald Trump himself) are not just wrong. They’re obsolete.

In a move that has sent shockwaves through Washington, President Donald Trump has signed an executive order to dismantle the Department of Education (DOE)—a federal agency that has long overstepped its constitutional boundaries and failed the American people. Critics are panicking, but the reality is this: education was never meant to be controlled by Washington, and the DOE was never about the kids.

A Department Built on Politics, Not Education

The Department of Education was created in 1979 by President Jimmy Carter not because of any urgent need for federal oversight, but to secure support from the teachers' unions in his re-election bid. It was a political maneuver, not an educational reform. In fact, the Department of Education Organization Act explicitly states:

"The establishment of the Department of Education shall NOT increase the authority of the Federal Government over education or diminish the responsibility for education, which is reserved to the States and the local school systems and other instrumentalities of the States."

The Act also claims that the Department was meant to:

"PROTECT the rights of State and local governments and public and private educational institutions...and improve the control of such governments and institutions over their own educational programs and policies."

Yet, since its creation, the DOE has done the exact opposite. It has centralized power, dictated curriculum, and manipulated funding to push ideological agendas, stripping states, parents, and local communities of the authority that was promised to them.

Federal Control Has Failed Students

Since the DOE took control, test scores have plummeted, student achievement has stagnated, and spending has skyrocketed. The U.S. spends more per student than almost any other country, yet American students rank embarrassingly low in math, reading, and science compared to their international peers.

The DOE has poured billions of taxpayer dollars into programs that have done nothing to improve education. Instead, the department has used its funding power to push radical leftist ideologies like Critical Race Theory (CRT), gender theory, and Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives, turning schools into Marxist indoctrination centers rather than places of learning.

Education or Activism? What the DOE Has Really Done

Former professor C.S. Lewis warned in his book The Abolition of Man that modern education would stop teaching students how to seek truth, wisdom, and virtue. Instead, it would train them to be activists, loyal only to the state and its latest ideological obsession.

This is exactly what has happened under the DOE’s reign. Instead of focusing on math, science, reading, and history, our schools have been transformed into factories that churn out students who know more about intersectionality and protest tactics than basic U.S. civics.

The DOE and its allies in academia have erased classical education, which once taught students to seek truth, beauty, and goodness. They have replaced it with a system that teaches children to hate their country, distrust their families, and worship government control.

Restoring Power to Parents and the States

By dismantling the DOE, Trump is doing exactly what Congress originally intended, returning education to the states and local communities.

Some critics argue that without the DOE, federal funding might be withheld from certain states if they teach things the government disagrees with. But this argument ignores reality: the federal government has already been using funding as a weapon to control states. The DOE has dictated everything from testing standards to curriculum choices, forcing states to comply with leftist agendas or risk losing funding.

If states truly want control over their education, they should fund their own schools instead of relying on federal money with strings attached. That is what real educational freedom looks like.

The Left’s True Fear: Losing Their Money Machine

The real reason the Left is panicking is not because they fear losing education quality (which they’ve already destroyed), but because the DOE is a massive money-laundering operation for the Democratic Party.

Here’s how it works:

1. Your tax dollars fund the DOE.
2. The DOE sends billions to universities and public schools (particularly for DEI, CRT, and left-wing initiatives).
3. University faculty, who overwhelmingly donate to Democrat politicians, receive this money.
4. That money cycles right back into Democrat campaigns, securing their power.

By dismantling the DOE, Trump is cutting off one of the biggest financial pipelines that fuels left-wing politics. That’s the real reason they are terrified.

In other words...

Trump’s executive order to dismantle the Department of Education is a victory for the Constitution, for parents, and for the future of America’s children. The DOE has spent decades failing students, undermining local control, and turning schools into activist factories.

By restoring power to states, parents, and local communities, this move will allow schools to focus on real education again not political indoctrination. It is time to raise a generation of children who seek knowledge, truth, and excellence, rather than one trained to blindly serve the state.

This is not just about education; it’s about saving the future of America.