The political establishment is stunned. The legacy media is scrambling. And the polling class? They’re quietly panicking.
In a development few thought possible, Donald J. Trump is not just surviving the political gauntlet of 2024 — he’s thriving. According to Rich Baris, the most accurate pollster of the last election cycle, Trump is experiencing a level of sustained approval and favorability that’s defying political precedent and sending shockwaves through both parties.
Trump’s Approval Defies the Odds
Despite relentless legal attacks, media smears, and a deeply polarized nation, Trump’s approval rating sits between +2 to +4 net positive, with a recent private poll landing at +3. At his peak, Baris notes, Trump soared to an astounding +18 during his "honeymoon phase" after announcing his return to the political arena.
“This is unprecedented,” said Baris. “For any Republican president (let alone a political outsider like Trump) to maintain this kind of sustained approval is almost unthinkable.”
A Favorability Flip That Has Democrats Rattled
Even more stunning is a historic inversion in Trump’s numbers. For the first time, Trump’s favorability now slightly exceeds his approval rating, a reversal of the long-standing dynamic where voters might approve of his job performance but express personal disdain.
“This tells us something seismic is happening,” explained Baris. “Not only are people acknowledging his effectiveness, they’re beginning to like him and that is a nightmare scenario for Democrats.”
The Reluctant Voter: Still Trump’s Trump Card
For years, Trump has wielded a rare political advantage: the ability to win over voters who don’t personally like him but vote for him anyway. Baris estimates 10–15% of Trump’s support comes from voters in this category — the so-called “reluctant voters.”
“They’ll tell you, ‘I can’t stand the tweets,’ or ‘I don’t like the way he talks,’” said Baris. “But then they say, ‘He was a damn good president.’ That pragmatic loyalty has always been his secret weapon.”
A Realignment in Real Time
Baris and Turley highlighted what appears to be an ongoing massive political realignment. Key demographic groups, once solidly Democratic, are breaking toward Trump in numbers that would’ve been unthinkable just a few cycles ago.
Among the shifts:
Young men under 35, especially Gen Z males, are now among Trump’s most favorable age brackets.
Black and Hispanic voters, particularly men, are showing consistent erosion in support for Democrats and a growing openness to Trump’s populist message.
Working-class and non-white voters, disillusioned with Democratic leadership, are resonating more with Trump’s rhetoric of national strength, economic opportunity, and cultural tradition.
Trump’s alignment with figures like Elon Musk and his resonance in influencer and tech culture has also helped shift perceptions among younger voters, many of whom no longer look to Hollywood or legacy media for guidance.
GOP Struggles to Harness Trump’s Momentum
While Trump’s political engine is running full throttle, the GOP’s infrastructure is still sputtering. In Pennsylvania’s 36th district (which Trump carried by 15 points) Republicans lost a recent special election, a defeat Baris blames squarely on local party incompetence.
“There’s MAGA energy out there,” he said. “But the Republican Party isn’t always capable or even willing to harness it.”
He praised Florida and North Carolina as models of MAGA-oriented party governance, singling out Michael Whatley (newly elevated within the RNC) as someone who “gets it.”
Polling Establishment in Collapse
Baris also took a victory lap at the expense of legacy polling outfits like FiveThirtyEight, which has collapsed under new leadership. He slammed what he calls the “election mafia”, a club of pollsters who reward consensus over accuracy and penalize independent analysts like himself for breaking with the narrative.
“They gave me an R+7 lean just because I wasn’t off by seven points to the left like everyone else,” said Baris. “They punish you for being right if it goes against their ideology.”
Turnout Trends Turning Upside Down
In a dramatic shift, high voter turnout is no longer a guaranteed win for Democrats. In states like Wisconsin, red counties are showing turnout spikes, and it’s not clear Democrats can make up the difference.
“Normies are voting,” Baris quipped. “And normal people are Republicans now.”
He noted that low-propensity voters, once the core of Democrat victories, are increasingly outnumbered by consistent Trump-aligned voters who are turning out in bigger and bigger numbers.
Conclusion: The Realignment is Real
What we’re witnessing may be one of the most consequential political shifts in American history. Trump is attracting not just Republicans, but moderates, independents, young men, and minorities, the very groups Democrats long considered their firewall.
“This isn’t a statistical blip,” Baris insisted. “It’s a political realignment.”
And if it continues, the media’s long-held assumptions (about voter behavior, about demographics, about Donald Trump himself) are not just wrong. They’re obsolete.