On September 23, 2024, political analysts Rich Baris and Robert Barnes shared their thoughts on North Carolina’s gubernatorial race during their What Are The Odds? podcast, focusing on the internal struggles facing Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, a populist Republican candidate. While Baris and Barnes emphasized the opposition Robinson faces within the GOP, it's important to note that despite these challenges, Robinson is still very much in the running—and could win the race.
GOP Infighting: Robinson's Struggles within His Own Party
Baris and Barnes pointed out that Robinson, who has garnered significant grassroots support, is being undermined not just by Democrats but by the GOP establishment itself. The so-called "Country Club Republicans," who dominate Southern state politics, seem uncomfortable with Robinson’s candidacy. As a Black Republican closely aligned with Donald Trump, Robinson presents a challenge to the traditional GOP leadership in North Carolina, which has historically preferred candidates they can more easily control.
The podcast hosts allege that certain Republicans have gone as far as leaking damaging information to Democratic opponent Josh Stein, who then passed it on to media outlets like CNN. This alleged betrayal, they argue, stems from the GOP establishment's discomfort with a Black populist leading the state, especially one who isn't easily controlled. However, Mark Robinson has vehemently denied these accusations and is taking legal action against CNN for publicizing the claims.
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In an official campaign statement, the Robinson campaign announced, “The Binnall Law Group has been hired to investigate the outrageous lies from CNN’s latest smear against Lieutenant Governor and Republican nominee for Governor, Mark Robinson." Robinson asserted, “As I’ve said from the beginning, the claims from CNN are salacious lies. I will not let these attacks distract us from sharing a better future for our state." Jesse Binnall, leading the investigation, promised, “My team and I will leave no stone unturned, bringing all resources to bear in getting to the facts. Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, his family, and the voters of North Carolina deserve nothing less.”
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Disagreeing with Baris: Robinson Can Still Win
While Baris alluded to the GOP “losing elections like this all the time,” it would be premature to count Robinson out. Yes, infighting is damaging, but this situation isn’t necessarily a death sentence for Robinson’s campaign. In fact, there are still strong indicators that Robinson could win this race—especially if Trump’s coattails come into play.
We previously posted an article discussing the potential coattail effect in the 2024 election, referencing data from On Point Politics, one of the most accurate aggregate modelers of the 2020 cycle. According to On Point, if Trump carries North Carolina by 7% or more, Robinson is actually slightly favored to win, with a projected 0.6% advantage. This shows that Robinson is far from doomed, as Baris suggested. With Trump performing strongly in the state, Robinson stands to benefit from an energized Republican electorate.
The Coattail Effect and Robinson's Path to Victory
The idea of a coattail effect is not new, but it’s highly relevant in this race. The coattail effect refers to the boost that down-ballot candidates often receive when a popular candidate at the top of the ticket—like Trump—performs well. With Trump currently polling strongly in North Carolina, Robinson’s chances are directly tied to this broader Republican surge.
In fact, Trump’s base of non-college-educated white voters, rural voters, and increasingly diverse working-class voters overlaps with Robinson’s own support. If Trump manages to win North Carolina by a significant margin, as some models predict, Robinson could ride those coattails into the governor’s mansion, overcoming the establishment resistance within his own party.
Conclusion: Mark Robinson's Fight Isn't Over
While Rich Baris and Robert Barnes provide insightful analysis of the internal dynamics working against Mark Robinson, the situation is far from hopeless. Robinson’s campaign still has a path to victory, especially with Trump’s continued dominance in North Carolina. The coattail effect, highlighted in On Point Politics models, shows that if Trump wins big in North Carolina, Robinson could easily follow suit. According to Baris and Barnes, the Republican establishment may be working against him, but Robinson’s appeal to the base, his alignment with Trump, and the possibility of high Republican turnout all signal that this race is still very much winnable. What remains to be seen is whether Robinson can tap into the populist energy that has defined much of the Republican electorate in recent years.
Links:
Mark Robinson Sabotaged by GOP? Rich Baris & Robert Barnes Expose Internal Party Struggles
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Margaret Ackiss Gives an Insider Account on What Happened with Mark Robinson
https://www.tiktok.com/@margoinnc/video/7418391378264214826