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Mark Robinson’s Path to Victory: Using Trump’s Coattails to Defy Polling
October 16, 2024
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Mark Robinson still has a clear path to victory despite trailing by 16 points in the RCP polling average—a number skewed by outlier polls following CNN’s September report accusing him of controversial online activity. Prior to the report, Robinson was only down by single digits and on track to win. With On Point Politics—the most accurate polling aggregate from 2020—projecting Trump to win North Carolina by 8 points, Robinson can leverage Trump’s coattails to outperform current polling averages.

Presidential coattails historically add 3-5 points for aligned down-ballot candidates, especially in states like North Carolina, where Trump’s rural and evangelical base overlaps with Robinson’s support. If Robinson narrows his deficit to 11-12 points, Trump’s projected 8-point win could boost Robinson just enough to overcome biased polling and suburban split-ticket voting trends. As voters increasingly view Robinson as a Trump-like outsider under attack by the political elite, this momentum, combined with strong rural turnout, positions Robinson to defy the polling narrative and secure a narrow victory on Election Day.


Tracking Robinson’s Numbers: The True Picture

Polling averages show Robinson down 16 points today, but that is largely due to the temporary spike in Stein’s numbers following CNN’s September report. In fact, the polls were competitive before this controversy, and Robinson's grassroots campaign was building momentum to overtake Stein. Notably, the Quinnipiac poll, known for its liberal lean, has Robinson down only 12 points, which suggests the race is already within striking distance when factoring in Trump’s coattails.

This confirms what our model shows: Mark Robinson is in position to win, as long as the fundamentals continue trending his way.


Coattail Math: How Trump’s Performance Lifts Robinson

We have mentioned how Trump’s projected 8-point win in North Carolina will affect down-ballot races like the gubernatorial contest. Presidential coattails typically add 2-5 points to aligned candidates, depending on turnout overlap. Since both Trump and Robinson draw heavily from rural, evangelical, and working-class voters, the coattail effect is likely to be on the higher end of that range.

Here’s how the math breaks down:

  • If Robinson reduces his polling deficit to 11-12 points by Election Day, Trump’s coattails could provide a 3-5 point boost through increased turnout and straight-ticket voting.
  • This means that Robinson only needs to close the gap to 11 points to enter the range where Trump’s coattail effect could push him over the finish line.

Historical data supports this analysis. In 2016, Trump’s 3.6-point victory in North Carolina helped GOP Senator Richard Burr outperform his Democratic challenger by 5.7 points. Similarly, in 2020, Trump’s narrow 1.3-point win lifted several Republican candidates in state legislative races, despite Democrats' heavy spending. This demonstrates how strong alignment between the top of the ticket and down-ballot races boosts turnout and results.

In this race, limiting split-ticket voting in suburban areas is crucial. Robinson can reduce GOP defections by framing his campaign as a fight against the same political and media elites who target Trump. With Stein tied to the Biden-Harris agenda, Robinson has the opportunity to unify Trump voters behind both the presidential and gubernatorial tickets. If he succeeds in reducing suburban defections and GOP turnout surges in rural areas, Trump’s coattails could be decisive.

With Trump winning by 8 points and Robinson needing only a 4-5 point lift to overcome a 12-point deficit, the math shows Robinson is in a position to win. Historically strong GOP turnout patterns, especially in rural counties, combined with Trump’s momentum, put Robinson on track for a narrow but realistic victory.


Rebuilding Momentum: Relief Work and Fighting Back

Robinson’s efforts during Hurricane Helene relief operations demonstrate his leadership and hands-on approach. Working alongside local law enforcement and coordinating supplies, Robinson has been able to reframe the narrative in his favor—highlighting his ability to act decisively in times of crisis, in contrast to the Democratic administration’s faltering response.

Meanwhile, Robinson’s lawsuit against CNN shows voters that he’s willing to fight back against elite media attacks, much like Trump has done throughout his political career. This has already begun to galvanize grassroots support, with many voters viewing Robinson as a Trump-like figure who is being unfairly targeted by the political establishment.


The Path to Victory Is Clear

With Trump projected to win North Carolina by 8 points and Robinson already within 12 points in even the most liberal polling (Quinnipiac), Robinson is well-positioned to close the gap. On Point Politics’ model—which factors in Trump’s coattail effect—has Robinson trailing by just 3 points, reinforcing that if Robinson tightens the race further, he can win.

The narrative is shifting, too, with more voters seeing Robinson, like Trump, as a candidate being railroaded by political elites and the media. If Robinson maintains his grassroots efforts, limits split-ticket voting, and leverages Trump’s momentum, the math shows a clear path to a narrow but decisive victory.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Representative Jasmine Crockett’s recent criticism of Representative Byron Donalds for marrying a white woman highlights a regressive mindset steeped in ignorance and racial bias, casting doubt on her ability to engage with the diverse realities of American life.

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1906302926571618409

By implying that Donalds has been “whitewashed” through his interracial marriage, Crockett clings to outdated stereotypes that dictate racial loyalty over personal agency, exposing her own hypocrisy in advocating for equality while policing others’ private choices. This narrow perspective stands in stark contrast to the evolving dynamics of relationships across racial lines, as evidenced by a probabilistic analysis of partner selection among conservative Black individuals. To illustrate the complexity of such dynamics, consider the following study estimating the likelihood of a conservative Black man finding and marrying a conservative Black woman who aligns with his values—a scenario Crockett might deem more “acceptable,” yet one fraught with its own...

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Epstein Victims’ Lawyer Confirms Trump Cooperated, Was Never a Suspect

In a July 7, 2019 interview outside the Palm Beach County Courthouse, attorney Bradley J. Edwards who has represented numerous victims of Jeffrey Epstein since 2008, publicly confirmed that Donald J. Trump was not involved in Epstein’s crimes and, in fact, cooperated with investigators. Edwards stated that in 2009, when he served subpoenas and reached out to various high-profile individuals during his pursuit of justice for the victims, Trump was the only one who willingly got on the phone, offered to help, and provided useful, truthful information. He explicitly noted that there was no indication whatsoever that Trump had engaged in any inappropriate behavior, and Trump's information checked out as accurate, helping the investigation, not hindering it.
This statement came during a larger civil trial saga, where Edwards had countersued Epstein for malicious prosecution after Epstein filed a baseless lawsuit against him in retaliation for his aggressive legal actions on behalf of the ...

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No, China Is Not Surging Ahead of the U.S. Economy

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In contrast, the U.S. economy's 0.3% contraction in Q1 2025 was primarily influenced by a temporary surge in imports ahead of newly implemented tariffs, which widened the trade deficit. Despite this, core economic indicators remain robust. The labor market added 177,000 jobs in April, surpassing expectations, with ...

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Trump’s Tariffs and the April Jobs Report: Who’s Really Winning?

It looks like President Trump knows exactly what he’s doing,...again. The April jobs report just dropped, and despite all the noise from the media and Wall Street “experts,” the numbers tell a different story.

After Trump’s bold “Liberation Day” move (slapping back with reciprocal tariffs) the markets had a brief scare. But guess what? The U.S. labor market held strong. The economy added 177,000 new jobs, blowing past the 138,000 forecast. Unemployment? Steady at 4.2%. Wages? Still growing.

This isn’t luck. It’s the result of strategic leadership rooted in real-world economics. Tariffs that level the playing field. Policies that put American workers first. The media will try to spin this, but the numbers speak for themselves.

Trump’s done it before, and he’s doing it again. He's bringing jobs back, standing up for American industry, and proving the critics wrong.

-the Conservative TAKE contributor

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MAGA Stays Loyal: Trump Defends the Big Beautiful Bill as Musk Turns Critic — Here’s Why
updated 6/5/25 3:46pm EST

A quiet storm appears to be brewing on the American right, and at the center of it are two of the most influential figures in modern conservatism: Donald J. Trump and Elon Musk.

The spark? A sweeping, controversial congressional spending package that President Trump has dubbed the "big beautiful bill" and that Elon Musk recently scorched on social media as a “disgusting abomination.” With over 134 million views on Musk's viral post and a call to action for his followers to pressure Congress into killing the bill, the billionaire’s very public dissent has triggered speculation of a serious rift between the two powerhouses.

A Civil War on the Right? (spoiler... not at all)

Despite the firestorm Musk ignited, the Trump camp has responded with uncharacteristic calm, standing firmly behind the bill. The White House has acknowledged concerns but reaffirmed that Trump is “sticking to it.” This, observers note, is indicative of a broader strategic calculation: maintaining party unity around a measure Trump believes is both necessary and popular.

At the heart of the disagreement are conflicting deficit projections. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the bill would add $2.4 trillion to the deficit over 10 years. Meanwhile, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) projects a $1.4 trillion reduction in the same timeframe. Critics and deficit hawks have seized on the CBO’s projection, while the Trump administration leans heavily on the OMB’s numbers to defend the bill’s long-term value.

Dysfunction Within the GOP

More than just a policy dispute, the clash exposes a longstanding divide inside the Republican Party. Unlike the Democrats who generally remain ideologically aligned between their grassroots and leadership the GOP remains fractured. The base demands less government and less spending, but many within the Republican congressional leadership continue to support expansive budgets for sectors like defense and infrastructure.

This disunity forces leaders like Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Minority Leader John Thune to walk a tightrope trying to satisfy both fiscal conservatives and pro-Trump populists. The wildly different projections from CBO and OMB only exacerbate that internal dysfunction.

Musk’s Motives Under Scrutiny

While Musk’s public opposition to the bill is clear, his private motivations are less so. According to The Wall Street Journal, Musk’s fury may stem not from fiscal principles, but from a personal vendetta. Trump’s White House recently nixed Musk ally Jared Isaacman’s nomination to lead NASA despite Musk’s considerable financial support during the 2024 campaign. Axios adds several additional reasons: the bill’s rollback of EV tax credits, the White House's push for Musk to step down from Dogecoin leadership, rejection of Starlink as the national air traffic control system, and yes Isaacman’s failed nomination.

But all these reports rely on anonymous sources, making it difficult to separate hard facts from political gossip. Still, Musk’s aggressive posture including threats to fund primary challengers against Republicans who back the bill shows this fight could have real political consequences.


The Carrot, the Stick, and the MAGA Base

In the midst of this high-stakes battle, David Marcus of Fox News laid out the unavoidable political reality facing Republicans. The “stick” is dire: failure to pass the bill would trigger a $4 trillion tax increase, the largest in American history an electoral disaster for the GOP. The “carrot” is equally powerful: the bill is broadly popular among Trump’s base.

A Napolitan News Service poll found 44% of voters support the bill, compared to 38% who oppose it. Among Trump supporters, that number skyrockets to 80% approval. Even more telling: while 63% of those same Trump backers are concerned about government spending, they still back the bill overall. Why? Because Trump has promised and already begun a follow-up package of recissions to slash spending later.

Trump’s Word Is Still Law

Elon Musk may have deep pockets, but Trump’s endorsement remains the most valuable political asset in Republican politics. For incumbents who vote for the bill, that endorsement is priceless. For those who vote against it like Thomas Massie or Rand Paul Trump’s wrath can be career-ending.

MAGA may like Elon Musk. They may even love him. But they are loyal to Trump.

The bill’s passage is expected, likely not by July 4th as initially hoped, but by August, in conjunction with the next debt ceiling showdown. Political logic (and survival instincts) make its passage almost inevitable.

The Bigger Picture

In the end, any rift between Trump and Musk is likely to be short-lived. While their methods and motives may differ, both remain central figures in the conservative movement. As the 2026 midterms approach, and with the 2028 race looming on the horizon, their ability to reconcile may prove crucial to the MAGA coalition’s future strength.

For now, the big beautiful bill stands tall and with it, Trump’s dominance over the Republican Party. Elon Musk may be the richest man in the world, but in MAGA World, Donald Trump is still king.

...added after the inital article. updated 6/5/25 3:46pm EST
In a bizarre escalation, Elon Musk recently implied that President Trump was somehow connected to Jeffrey Epstein, suggesting he was on the so-called “Epstein list.” The claim was immediately debunked...again. As users across X (formerly Twitter) pointed out, even the FBI under Trump-hostile leadership confirmed he was not on any such list. "If DJT was on any Epstein list, it would have been made public a long time ago," wrote one user. Others noted that known criminals, mobsters, and elites have all admitted they couldn’t corrupt Trump, and he famously cut ties with Epstein years ago. Musk’s accusation wasn’t just false; it was reckless, and to many MAGA loyalists, it confirmed what this feud really is: political theatre. As one user put it, “Elon doesn’t understand politics. Elon is done.”

Amidst this controversy, some speculate that the public discord between Trump and Musk over the "big beautiful bill" might be a strategic maneuver. According to a Newsmax report, there are suggestions that Trump and Musk could be orchestrating this conflict to intentionally derail the bill, possibly to renegotiate terms or shift political narratives. While this theory remains unsubstantiated, it highlights the complex interplay of politics and strategy in high-stakes legislative processes.

https://x.com/i/status/1930666596948644271

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Golden Dome: Trump Looks to Fulfill Reagan’s Star Wars Legacy

May 20, 2025 – Washington, D.C.
In a dramatic announcement delivered alongside top military brass and political allies, former President Donald Trump unveiled the Golden Dome Missile Defense System, a sweeping new initiative to construct a multi-layered, next-generation shield capable of protecting the U.S. mainland from hypersonic missiles, orbital weapons, cruise missiles, and ballistic threats.

“This is the system that finishes what Reagan started,” Trump declared, invoking the legacy of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), often dubbed Star Wars. The Golden Dome promises a “near-100% interception rate” and aims to be fully operational within three years, just before the end of Trump’s potential second term.

Here’s what the project actually involves, minus the political flair and how feasible it really is based on current tech and strategic trends.

US President Donald Trump speaks during an announcement about the Golden Dome missile defense shield (Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)

 

A Multi-Domain Shield: Land, Sea, and Space

Space-Based Interceptors

One of the boldest claims is the use of space-based interceptors, marking a major shift from traditional ground- or sea-launched defenses. These systems would attempt to engage missiles in their boost or midcourse phase, offering faster reaction times and wider global coverage. While technically feasible, this reopens debate around the militarization of space and would likely violate the spirit of the Outer Space Treaty of 1967.

Past concepts like “Rods from God” (i.e. tungsten projectiles dropped from orbit at kinetic speeds) are being reevaluated as part of this effort. Such weapons require no explosives and could strike with nuclear-level force. However, they’ve never been deployed and face enormous technical and cost hurdles.

Ground-Based Missile Silos

Trump’s speech referenced silo-based interceptors across the homeland (much like Cold War-era ICBM fields) designed to launch anti-missile vehicles at incoming threats. These will likely be based on upgraded versions of existing systems like the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) interceptors in Alaska and California.

These interceptors are intended to engage threats in midcourse (the longest phase of flight, where missiles travel through space) but effectiveness against decoys and advanced hypersonic vehicles remains uncertain.

Naval and Mobile Assets

The U.S. Navy’s Aegis-equipped destroyers will remain a central component, especially for mobile regional defense. These ships, equipped with SM-3 and SM-6 interceptors, are proven against short- and medium-range ballistic threats.

Expect additional investments in THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) and Patriot systems for terminal-phase intercepts, especially near major cities and critical infrastructure.

Next-Gen Technologies in Play

Directed Energy Weapons (DEWs)

The Golden Dome will include laser and microwave systems designed to target drones, hypersonic vehicles, and missiles during their final approach. These systems:

  • Operate at speed of light

  • Offer unlimited ammunition (limited only by power supply)

  • Are ideal for swarm defense scenarios

The Navy’s HELIOS program already deploys 60–150kW lasers. Future iterations could exceed 500kW, capable of engaging high-speed, maneuvering targets from land, sea, or space.

AI-Driven Coordination

With saturation attacks increasingly likely, the Golden Dome will rely heavily on artificial intelligence for:

  • Sensor fusion from hundreds of satellites, ships, and radars

  • Real-time decision-making for threat prioritization

  • Coordinated intercepts across domains

This is the “kill web” concept: decentralized, automated defense networks built to withstand jamming, decoys, and saturation without collapsing under the complexity.

A Layered Defense – Iron Dome, but Supersized

While Trump’s comparison to Israel’s Iron Dome got attention, experts are quick to point out that the U.S. version would be massively more complex. Instead of a short-range rocket shield over a small country, the Golden Dome would have to defend:

  • 3.8 million square miles of homeland

  • Against threats from any global vector

  • In multiple flight phases: boost, midcourse, and terminal

The architecture will include:

  • Space-based sensors with IR and quantum capabilities

  • High-speed interceptors based on THAAD, Arrow, and GBI tech

  • Non-kinetic options like lasers and electronic warfare

  • A fully networked battlefield connecting ships, silos, satellites, and command centers

The Timeline and the Money

  • Initial funding: $25 billion, part of a new “big, beautiful” defense bill

  • Total estimated cost: $175 billion over a decade, possibly more

  • Operational goal: Fully active by 2028

The program will be overseen by General Mike Goodline, a Space Force veteran with a background in missile warning and procurement. Trump emphasized Goodline’s unanimous support from the defense community, saying, “There’s only one man for the job.”

The Strategic Stakes

If successful, the Golden Dome would:

  • Undermine traditional nuclear deterrence by making first strikes less viable

  • Trigger international blowback, particularly from China and Russia

  • Redefine American homeland defense in an age of hypersonic and orbital threats

Trump acknowledged the risks but framed them as necessary:

“This is something that goes a long way toward the survival of this great country. It's an evil world out there.”

In the end...

Golden Dome is not just another defense program;  it's a bet on transforming the fundamentals of global conflict. With orbital interceptors, directed energy, AI command networks, and massive funding, it aims to put the U.S. years ahead in homeland defense.

Whether it’s a technical moonshot or the next major leap in military deterrence, the clock is ticking, and the threats are already flying.




Sources:

  • “Trump Unveils ‘Golden Dome’ Missile Defense Initiative” – Transcript and announcement from May 20, 2025
  • “The Department of the Air Force in 2050” – U.S. Air Force strategic planning document
  • “Missile Defense Review” (2023) – U.S. Department of Defense
  • “China’s PLARF and the Future of Missile Warfare” – Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
  • “Directed Energy Weapons: Pentagon’s Next Frontier” – Congressional Research Service
  • “The Rise of Hypersonic Weapons and U.S. Strategic Response” – RAND Corporation
  • “Space-Based Missile Defense: Risks and Opportunities” – Union of Concerned Scientists
  • “Aegis BMD & SM-3 Interceptor Fact Sheet” – Missile Defense Agency (MDA)
  • “The Iron Dome and Multi-Layered Defense: Lessons from Israel” – Israeli Ministry of Defense
  • “Fractional Orbital Bombardment Systems: The Return of an Old Threat” – Federation of American Scientists
  • “Weaponization of Space and the Outer Space Treaty Loopholes” – International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
  • “Lasers, Rails, and Rods from God: Exotic U.S. Weapon Programs” – Defense One
  • “Kill Webs and Networked Warfare: The Future of U.S. Missile Defense” – MITRE Corporation
Lockheed Martin

 

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Trump the Liberator: Meme, Myth, and the Triumph Over Globalism

In a world drowning in cynicism, sometimes it takes a meme to tell the truth.

That’s exactly what happened when Donald Trump posted an image of himself dressed as the Pope. To the untrained eye, it was trolling. To the regime media, it was scandal. But to millions who’ve awakened to the crumbling lies of globalism, it was a signal—the rising of a new age.

Dr. Steve Turley, in a sweeping cultural analysis, revealed what lies beneath the surface of the so-called "Pope Trump" meme: a civilizational declaration, a mythic realignment, and a spiritual revolt against globalist tyranny.

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