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Ten Strong Indicators Trump Is Poised for Victory in 2024
November 02, 2024
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This analysis draws from the insights shared on the Substack of Seth Keshel, MBA. A former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, Keshel is renowned worldwide for his analytical method of election forecasting. His work, which has been commended by President Donald J. Trump, offers a detailed perspective on voter trends and electoral shifts. Here is a look at ten key indicators suggesting Trump is well-positioned for a strong performance in the 2024 election.


1. Trump’s Narrative Control

Donald Trump’s campaign has evolved significantly since the chaotic 2020 election. While he had the votes to win then, he struggled to control the narrative. The relentless media attacks, amplified narratives of pandemic-era irresponsibility, and doubts about election integrity drowned out his message. Today, Trump has become a master of the media landscape, transforming even setbacks into publicity wins. He has handled assassination threats, legal battles, and media smears with the finesse of a seasoned showman, making appearances from Joe Rogan to local rallies, and even turning his mugshot in Atlanta into a viral sensation. His relatable moments, like serving fries at McDonald's and donning blue-collar attire, have only boosted his visibility and likability. This time, should he claim victory, few would question its legitimacy.

Conversely, Kamala Harris faces an uphill battle, reliant on institutional allies and a media network that seems increasingly hesitant to lend unconditional support. Without Trump-level visibility or grassroots enthusiasm, her candidacy looks fragile, with her campaign banking on media-driven miracles and established connections.


2. Shifts in Party Affiliation

The electoral map has changed drastically since 2020, with party registration trends favoring the GOP. Out of 31 states that register voters by party, 30 have either become more Republican or less Democratic. The sole outlier, Colorado, is moving leftward. This trend is especially pronounced in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and New Hampshire, which have seen marked shifts toward the GOP. Furthermore, Florida and Iowa—peripheral battlegrounds—are leaning much more Republican.

Pennsylvania stands out the most, with 64 of its 67 counties shifting toward the GOP, yielding a net advantage of over 400,000 voters since 2020. Meanwhile, Gallup reports the most Republican-leaning political environment since 2004.

Captain K's Corner

 


3. Striking Early Voting Dynamics

Donald Trump’s call for Republicans to embrace early voting was strategic, aimed at influencing the media narrative. Traditionally, Democrats have relied on early vote leads to demoralize GOP turnout efforts. Yet this cycle tells a different story: Republicans are either leading or seeing more favorable returns. North Carolina’s early voting has a clear GOP edge. Arizona shows a Republican lead exceeding 155,000 ballots. Nevada has Republicans up over 5% in early returns. Georgia’s demographic data suggests strong rural white turnout, while black voter participation in key urban areas is notably low, a pattern unlikely to improve on Election Day.

Pennsylvania’s early voting dynamics are also favorable for the GOP, with returns showing a 20% shift toward Republicans compared to the 2020 race, where Joe Biden barely eked out a win.


4. Miami-Dade: A GOP Bellwether

Miami-Dade County is poised to make history. Currently, early voting turnout is favoring Republicans by 5%, a stunning reversal from its D+3.4% registration index. If Trump wins here, it would mark the first GOP presidential victory in Miami-Dade since 1988. Historically, whenever a Republican presidential nominee carries this county (as seen in elections from 1928 to 1988), they have gone on to win the presidency. This shift signals a seismic change in the Sunshine State’s electoral landscape.


5. The Duval County Indicator

Another key signal in Florida comes from Duval County, home to Jacksonville. This area has historically mirrored Georgia in voting patterns and demographics. Registration in Duval has shifted from D+5.9% in 2020 to just D+1.9% today. Current turnout trends have Republicans leading by 3.5%. If Trump carries Duval, it’s a strong indicator he could also reclaim Georgia and its crucial 16 electoral votes.

Captain K's Corner

6. Early Signs in New York

While presidential elections differ from midterms, New York is showing undeniable signs of a Republican shift. Registration data and unexpectedly competitive races in 2022 hint at a changing political tide. Even though some recent polls show Harris with a wide lead, between August and October, several showed her advantage shrinking to single digits. Historically, when New York trends right, states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Jersey tend to follow. This suggests that the whole Rust Belt could be shifting in Trump’s favor.

https://skeshel.substack.com/p/watch-new-york-2024s-potential-canary

7. Peripheral Indicators and Betting Markets

Beyond voter data, other measures highlight GOP momentum. Betting platforms like PolyMarket and Kalshi show increased confidence in a Republican victory. Additionally, youth polling data, aligned with early voting trends, indicates a surge of support for the GOP among Generation Z, reminiscent of the Reagan-era youth shift in 1984. Democrats’ overreach on progressive issues may have triggered a rebellion among young voters they once counted on.


8. Urban Turnout Disparities

One of the Democrats’ biggest worries is the uneven turnout in urban areas. The traditional male-female voting split has widened to 44/56, as opposed to the typical 48/52. This is concerning for Democrats, whose success depends heavily on mobilizing urban centers. Across key locations, like Fulton County, Georgia, and major cities in Texas, turnout lags behind expectations. Black voter participation has notably declined, and Hispanic support is bleeding to the GOP. Without extraordinary turnout in urban strongholds, Democrats face a steeper climb than in 2020.


9. The Polling Conundrum

Polling remains a polarizing topic, even as reputable firms like Rasmussen and Big Data Poll (Richard Baris) strive for accuracy. Trump currently leads the RealClearPolitics popular vote average by 0.5%, with most battleground states showing favorable trends. Mainstream polls have a history of underestimating Trump’s support, with Wisconsin polls missing by an average of six points in 2020. Minority support for Trump is projected to break GOP records, and early registration data suggests massive gains among non-college-educated white voters.


10. Shifting Endorsements

Remarkably, even traditionally left-leaning newspapers are hesitating to endorse Harris. Outlets like The Washington Post and The Los Angeles Times, loyal to Democrats in past cycles, have remained silent, reflecting doubts about her viability. Their refusal to endorse speaks volumes, given their history of backing Democratic nominees even in contentious races. Like pollsters, these editorial boards may be wary of aligning with a candidate perceived as a potential loser.

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There’s a big difference between betting markets and polls. Betting markets reflect where people put their money, but they can be manipulated by a few players to create false narratives or momentum. This happened with Kamala at times—some donors artificially boosted her odds to make things look better than they were.

Polls, on the other hand, are based on actual data from real people, not just speculation. While some polls can be skewed by poor sampling or party weighting, good pollsters like Atlas Intel (which missed the 2020 and 2022 results by approx. 3% & 2% respectively), Trafalgar Group, Big Data Polling, and Rasmussen have consistently nailed outcomes over the past few cycles. So while polling isn’t perfect, it’s far more reliable than betting markets when done right.

Farrakhan’s Viral de facto Endorsement of Trump Resurfaces, Undermining Kamala Harris’s 2024 Appeal

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Farrakhan’s remarks are gaining traction among segments of the African American community who are drawn to Trump’s anti-establishment rhetoric. Farrakhan highlights...

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Christian?

If you are a Christian and you won’t share the Gospel, you won’t publicly proclaim Christ, and you won’t stand up for truth when it matters, then what are you good for? The least you can do is vote in private. If you won’t take action in the world, the bare minimum is to cast a vote that aligns with God’s values.

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Why the Left Fears 2028: Their Only Hope is to Divide MAGA Now

As an organization that proudly supported Donald Trump, we celebrate the historic mandate he received to "fix it", to restore America’s strength, sovereignty, and unity. The 2024 election was a resounding GOP landslide, with every demographic moving decisively toward Trump: Hispanics, working-class voters, Black Americans, women, Asians, and more. This election showed that Trump is not just a leader for one party or one group; he promised to be a president for allAmericans.

We must acknowledge the ongoing attempts by the liberal mainstream media to divide the MAGA movement and undermine Trump’s agenda. Over the past eight years, the media has repeatedly proven itself willing to distort facts and promote false narratives. From the Russia collusion hoax to the suppression of the Hunter Biden laptop story, from twisting Trump’s “very fine people” comments to peddling the Steele dossier, the media has lied consistently and shamelessly.

Now, with Trump returning to office, these tactics are being renewed in force. The media is already driving wedges by exploiting controversies like H1B visas, the “Elon is President” distraction, mass deportation misinformation, the Trump-Johnson Speakership narrative, and the continuing resolution debates. The goal of these stories is not to inform but to inflame and to pit MAGA supporters against one another, weaken Trump’s coalition, and stall the America First agenda.

The Stakes: Trump’s Success is America’s Success

The reality is clear: as long as Donald Trump is successful, the left cannot win. The data from Pennsylvania underscores this truth. GOP voter registrations have surged, shifting the political landscape of a historically key state. This movement demonstrates the broad appeal and staying power of Trump’s message. The left knows that Trump’s success threatens their political future, not just in 2024 but for years to come.

Consider the stakes for the future of the Republican Party and the conservative movement. The easiest path for a 2028 JD Vance victory (or any future MAGA-aligned candidate) is for Trump to deliver on his promises. If Trump fails in his mandate to fix the nation, it will create an opening for the left to exploit and unravel the progress made under his leadership. This is precisely why the media and their allies are working so hard to divide us now, even before Trump officially begins his second term.

The left’s ultimate goal is to see Trump fail because they know that his success solidifies a durable political realignment: a coalition of working-class voters, minorities, and everyday Americans who reject the globalist, anti-American agenda of the elites. As long as Trump fulfills his promises, the left’s vision of political dominance is unattainable.

Unity is Key to MAGA’s Success

We must remember why we elected Donald Trump. He brings a unique perspective, informed by intelligence briefings and real-time knowledge of global and domestic challenges. While we may not always understand or agree with every decision, we trust that his leadership is guided by a commitment to the long-term success of the country.

MAGA is not about any one person; it is about putting America First for all people, today and for future generations. Unity is our greatest strength, and division is the left’s only hope for victory. Reject their lies. Reject their tactics. Stay focused on the mission.

As we move forward, let us remain united behind President Trump and the agenda we voted for. His success is America’s success, and by standing firm together, we will secure a brighter future for all Americans. Remember, the media’s goal is division, but our goal is greatness. United we stand, divided we fall. It’s time to move forward with confidence, determination, and trust in the leader we chose to guide this nation to renewed greatness.

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The Christmas Miracle of 1776
A Story of Risk, Providence, and the Cause of Liberty

On the frigid night of December 25, 1776, General George Washington faced one of the most pivotal moments in the fight for American independence. The Continental Army, battered by months of retreat and defeat, teetered on the brink of collapse. Enlistments were expiring. Supplies were dwindling. Morale was shattered. If the cause of liberty was to survive, it required an audacious act of courage.

Washington’s plan was bold to the point of desperation. Armed with the password "Victory or Death," he would lead his troops across the icy Delaware River in the dead of night to launch a surprise attack on the Hessian garrison at Trenton, New Jersey. The stakes couldn’t have been higher: failure would almost certainly spell the end of the Revolution. But Washington, embodying the spirit of divine providence and unwavering resolve, pressed forward.

The Challenges
The Delaware River, swollen with winter rains, was treacherous. Sheets of ice floated atop its black waters, and the howling wind tore through the soldiers’ threadbare clothing. Washington’s army, a ragtag group of citizen-soldiers and patriots, endured hardships that tested their limits. They lacked proper shoes, leaving bloody footprints in the snow. Hunger gnawed at their stomachs, and many had grown sick from exposure.

Timing was critical. Washington needed his men to cross the river and march nine miles to Trenton before dawn. But the river crossing was perilously slow. The Durham boats creaked under the weight of soldiers, horses, and cannons. Ice jams delayed progress. Commanders like Colonel John Glover, whose seafaring New England troops manned the boats, worked tirelessly to keep the operation from collapsing under the strain.

The Enemy
At Trenton, the Hessians—German mercenaries hired by the British—had grown complacent. Their commander, Colonel Johann Rall, received multiple warnings of potential American movements but dismissed them as implausible. One such warning, a letter, lay unopened in his pocket as he celebrated Christmas with his officers.

The Hessians believed Washington’s army was broken, incapable of mounting any serious threat. This misjudgment would prove fatal.

The Battle
By the time Washington’s forces reached Trenton, dawn was breaking. Though the element of surprise had been partially compromised, the Continental Army pressed the attack. Fighting through the streets, they overwhelmed the stunned Hessians in a swift and decisive victory.

Remarkably, the Americans suffered only a handful of casualties. The Hessians, caught completely off guard, surrendered en masse. Washington’s gamble had paid off.

Providence and the Cause of Liberty
Many, including Washington himself, saw the hand of divine providence in the victory. Against overwhelming odds, the American cause was revived. The victory at Trenton boosted morale and reinvigorated the fight for independence. It sent a message to the world: the pursuit of liberty, rooted in God-given rights, was worth any risk.

Echoes to Today
The spirit of 1776 reminds us that freedom is never guaranteed. It must be fought for, preserved, and passed on. As we reflect on the challenges our nation has faced—whether against tyranny in the 18th century or ideological threats like Marxism in modern times—we see the enduring power of faith, resolve, and unity.

In 2024, Americans proved once again that the spirit of liberty is alive. Just as Washington’s victory at Trenton turned the tide of the Revolutionary War, so too have recent victories ensured that our nation remains a beacon of freedom.

Merry Christmas from The Conservative TAKE
As we gather with our families this Christmas, let us remember the sacrifices of those who came before us. Their bravery secured the blessings of liberty we enjoy today. May we continue to honor their legacy by standing firm in our convictions and cherishing the freedoms granted by our Creator.

Wishing you and your family a joyful Christmas and a prosperous New Year.

Blessings,
Kyle Suggs
the Conservative TAKE

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A Historic Mandate for Donald Trump in 2024

Paul Ingrassia, a prominent attorney, communications expert, and thought leader, has shared his take on the 2024 presidential election through his widely-read Substack. Ingrassia’s commentary often gains attention on Truth Social, with endorsements from former President Donald Trump himself. A graduate of Fordham University and Cornell Law School, Ingrassia serves as Communications Director of the NCLU, a two-time Claremont Fellow, and a Board Advisor for both the NYYR Club and the Italian American Civil Rights League. His insights reflect a sharp understanding of politics, culture, and law, and he invites readers to follow him on X (formerly Twitter), Substack, Instagram, Truth Social, and Rumble.

The 2024 Election: A Triumph Against All Odds


Ingrassia describes the 2024 election as a landmark moment in American political history. According to his analysis, Donald Trump achieved an overwhelming victory with 77 million popular votes and 312 electoral votes, surpassing the achievements of any Republican president since George H.W. Bush. In grassroots terms, this victory eclipsed even Trump’s record-breaking performance in 2020, where he garnered 74 million votes. Yet, the context of this victory is what makes it especially miraculous.

Despite enduring multiple assassination attempts, baseless indictments, and relentless negative press, Trump prevailed. Ingrassia highlights how the media, Hollywood, academia, and other cultural institutions aligned against Trump, making his victory a testament to the enduring spirit of the American people and their commitment to constitutional self-governance.

The Ideological Divide: Constitutionalism vs. Globalism


Ingrassia frames the 2024 election as more than a political contest—it was a battle for the soul of America. On one side stood Trump, representing traditional American values and constitutional governance. On the other, Kamala Harris embodied the ideology of globalism, open borders, and Marxism, which Ingrassia argues has eroded America’s institutions and moral foundations over recent decades.

He points to historical warnings against foreign entanglements, such as George Washington’s Farewell Address, to underscore the dangers of globalist policies. The election, according to Ingrassia, reflected the American people’s recognition of their duty to reject tyranny and reclaim their national identity.

Overcoming Corruption to Secure a Popular Mandate

While Republicans now control both chambers of Congress, the presidency, and the Supreme Court, Ingrassia warns that this mandate was hard-earned in the face of rampant electoral fraud. He alleges that Democratic strongholds like Chicago, Philadelphia, and New York engaged in illegal ballot practices aimed at undermining Republican votes.

Trump’s victory, he argues, was not due to the eradication of systemic fraud but because he overcame it. Ingrassia calls this a "Herculean" accomplishment, especially given Trump’s weeks spent in courtrooms as a result of politically motivated charges.

The Fight Against Wokeism


Ingrassia views the 2024 election as a direct repudiation of modern liberalism and its obsession with equity and diversity at the expense of freedom and quality. He criticizes the social justice movement for fostering a culture of self-loathing, historical revisionism, and attacks on Christian morality. The American people, he contends, have rejected this ideology and its influence over institutions like Hollywood, education, and corporate HR departments.

He asserts that the next four years will involve rooting out this ideological "cancer" by dismantling entrenched bureaucracies like the Department of Justice and the Department of Education. The goal, Ingrassia argues, is to return power to constitutionally authorized entities and restore American civic health.

A New Era of Republican Governance


Ingrassia emphasizes that Trump’s victory is not merely political but represents a seismic ideological shift. He calls for structural reforms to protect free government and justice, warning against the dangers of weaponized institutions. Referring to Elon Musk’s term "Woke Mind Virus," Ingrassia believes the country must eradicate this ideology from public life to reclaim its founding principles.

He critiques the Left’s weaponization of justice, pointing to the prosecution of Trump and his supporters as evidence of an incompatible ideology that undermines constitutional freedoms. According to Ingrassia, such actions disqualify their movement from legitimate claims to power.

Reclaiming America’s Greatness


Paul Ingrassia argues that Trump’s victory is a rallying cry for Americans to reject globalism and wokeism and to embrace their constitutional inheritance. The 2024 election, he contends, is a defining moment for a nation at a crossroads, and the years ahead will determine whether America can fully reclaim its greatness.

For more insights like this, follow Paul Ingrassia on Substack, Truth Social, X, Instagram, and Rumble.

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