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Ten Strong Indicators Trump Is Poised for Victory in 2024
November 02, 2024
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This analysis draws from the insights shared on the Substack of Seth Keshel, MBA. A former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, Keshel is renowned worldwide for his analytical method of election forecasting. His work, which has been commended by President Donald J. Trump, offers a detailed perspective on voter trends and electoral shifts. Here is a look at ten key indicators suggesting Trump is well-positioned for a strong performance in the 2024 election.


1. Trump’s Narrative Control

Donald Trump’s campaign has evolved significantly since the chaotic 2020 election. While he had the votes to win then, he struggled to control the narrative. The relentless media attacks, amplified narratives of pandemic-era irresponsibility, and doubts about election integrity drowned out his message. Today, Trump has become a master of the media landscape, transforming even setbacks into publicity wins. He has handled assassination threats, legal battles, and media smears with the finesse of a seasoned showman, making appearances from Joe Rogan to local rallies, and even turning his mugshot in Atlanta into a viral sensation. His relatable moments, like serving fries at McDonald's and donning blue-collar attire, have only boosted his visibility and likability. This time, should he claim victory, few would question its legitimacy.

Conversely, Kamala Harris faces an uphill battle, reliant on institutional allies and a media network that seems increasingly hesitant to lend unconditional support. Without Trump-level visibility or grassroots enthusiasm, her candidacy looks fragile, with her campaign banking on media-driven miracles and established connections.


2. Shifts in Party Affiliation

The electoral map has changed drastically since 2020, with party registration trends favoring the GOP. Out of 31 states that register voters by party, 30 have either become more Republican or less Democratic. The sole outlier, Colorado, is moving leftward. This trend is especially pronounced in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and New Hampshire, which have seen marked shifts toward the GOP. Furthermore, Florida and Iowa—peripheral battlegrounds—are leaning much more Republican.

Pennsylvania stands out the most, with 64 of its 67 counties shifting toward the GOP, yielding a net advantage of over 400,000 voters since 2020. Meanwhile, Gallup reports the most Republican-leaning political environment since 2004.

Captain K's Corner

 


3. Striking Early Voting Dynamics

Donald Trump’s call for Republicans to embrace early voting was strategic, aimed at influencing the media narrative. Traditionally, Democrats have relied on early vote leads to demoralize GOP turnout efforts. Yet this cycle tells a different story: Republicans are either leading or seeing more favorable returns. North Carolina’s early voting has a clear GOP edge. Arizona shows a Republican lead exceeding 155,000 ballots. Nevada has Republicans up over 5% in early returns. Georgia’s demographic data suggests strong rural white turnout, while black voter participation in key urban areas is notably low, a pattern unlikely to improve on Election Day.

Pennsylvania’s early voting dynamics are also favorable for the GOP, with returns showing a 20% shift toward Republicans compared to the 2020 race, where Joe Biden barely eked out a win.


4. Miami-Dade: A GOP Bellwether

Miami-Dade County is poised to make history. Currently, early voting turnout is favoring Republicans by 5%, a stunning reversal from its D+3.4% registration index. If Trump wins here, it would mark the first GOP presidential victory in Miami-Dade since 1988. Historically, whenever a Republican presidential nominee carries this county (as seen in elections from 1928 to 1988), they have gone on to win the presidency. This shift signals a seismic change in the Sunshine State’s electoral landscape.


5. The Duval County Indicator

Another key signal in Florida comes from Duval County, home to Jacksonville. This area has historically mirrored Georgia in voting patterns and demographics. Registration in Duval has shifted from D+5.9% in 2020 to just D+1.9% today. Current turnout trends have Republicans leading by 3.5%. If Trump carries Duval, it’s a strong indicator he could also reclaim Georgia and its crucial 16 electoral votes.

Captain K's Corner

6. Early Signs in New York

While presidential elections differ from midterms, New York is showing undeniable signs of a Republican shift. Registration data and unexpectedly competitive races in 2022 hint at a changing political tide. Even though some recent polls show Harris with a wide lead, between August and October, several showed her advantage shrinking to single digits. Historically, when New York trends right, states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Jersey tend to follow. This suggests that the whole Rust Belt could be shifting in Trump’s favor.

https://skeshel.substack.com/p/watch-new-york-2024s-potential-canary

7. Peripheral Indicators and Betting Markets

Beyond voter data, other measures highlight GOP momentum. Betting platforms like PolyMarket and Kalshi show increased confidence in a Republican victory. Additionally, youth polling data, aligned with early voting trends, indicates a surge of support for the GOP among Generation Z, reminiscent of the Reagan-era youth shift in 1984. Democrats’ overreach on progressive issues may have triggered a rebellion among young voters they once counted on.


8. Urban Turnout Disparities

One of the Democrats’ biggest worries is the uneven turnout in urban areas. The traditional male-female voting split has widened to 44/56, as opposed to the typical 48/52. This is concerning for Democrats, whose success depends heavily on mobilizing urban centers. Across key locations, like Fulton County, Georgia, and major cities in Texas, turnout lags behind expectations. Black voter participation has notably declined, and Hispanic support is bleeding to the GOP. Without extraordinary turnout in urban strongholds, Democrats face a steeper climb than in 2020.


9. The Polling Conundrum

Polling remains a polarizing topic, even as reputable firms like Rasmussen and Big Data Poll (Richard Baris) strive for accuracy. Trump currently leads the RealClearPolitics popular vote average by 0.5%, with most battleground states showing favorable trends. Mainstream polls have a history of underestimating Trump’s support, with Wisconsin polls missing by an average of six points in 2020. Minority support for Trump is projected to break GOP records, and early registration data suggests massive gains among non-college-educated white voters.


10. Shifting Endorsements

Remarkably, even traditionally left-leaning newspapers are hesitating to endorse Harris. Outlets like The Washington Post and The Los Angeles Times, loyal to Democrats in past cycles, have remained silent, reflecting doubts about her viability. Their refusal to endorse speaks volumes, given their history of backing Democratic nominees even in contentious races. Like pollsters, these editorial boards may be wary of aligning with a candidate perceived as a potential loser.

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https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1906302926571618409

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5. He's not respected...by the government, the public, or even his peers.
6. He's upstaged by a dog (Krypto steals emotional and action scenes).
7. He's upstaged again by the Justice Gang...his own allies get more spotlight.
8. Lex Luthor is cartoonish, flat, and lacks ideological depth.
9. The "evil Kryptonian parents" twist is a blatant post-American metaphor.
10. Kryptonian origin becomes a Marxist-style critique of American exceptionalism.
11. Superman is made effeminate...both in mannerisms and emotional fragility.
12. The illegal immigration allegory backfires...Superman is depicted as a security threat.
13. Screenplay over-explains everything, insulting the audience’s intelligence.
14. Plot is bloated, overly dense, and rushed in the final act.
15. His powers are “coded” ...

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*SPOILERS WARING***

Superman 2025 unveils a radically altered origin: Superman’s Kryptonian parents secretly planned for him to conquer Earth and reproduce with numerous women, deeming humanity inferior. This is a fact revealed only when Lex Luthor exposes a hidden message. This isn’t merely a narrative twist; it reflects an unsettling cultural current.

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Post-Americanism seeks the destruction of America as founded, striving to supplant her with a Marxist regime crafted in its own image. In Superman 2025, a cherished symbol of freedom and justice is reimagined as a tool of domination. This is a mirroring of broader cultural efforts meant to tear down core American values, rewrite history, and invert our understanding of heroism. It’s a quiet but unmistakable subversion of the ideals that have long defined American identity. We see the same pattern in the removal of statues, the rewriting of songs, the diminishing of patriotism, and ...

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The OBBB was a Herculean achievement, unprecedented in both scope and speed in American history. Critics claimed President Trump could never have his policies codified into law but this single legislative triumph shattered that narrative, enshrining over 20 pillars of the MAGA agenda into permanent statute. It proved not only his ability to lead and legislate, but also cemented his command of the Republican Party.

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Statement on Targeted Worker Policy and Economic Stability

This is not amnesty. No citizenship, permanent residency, or green cards are being offered. The discussion centers on a narrow, employer-driven framework for certain undocumented workers in agriculture, hospitality, and related sectors to remain temporarily under legal supervision.

The goal is simple: allow employers (particularly in industries vital to the economy) to vouch for specific individuals who have worked consistently, avoided criminal activity, and filled roles that are increasingly difficult to staff. These workers would be allowed to stay and pay taxes, but would not be eligible for citizenship or public benefits.

Mass removal of millions of workers (many of whom are concentrated in food production and service industries) would risk widespread economic disruption. Labor shortages are already pressing. Abrupt action without planning would strain supply chains, drive up prices, and hit American businesses hard.

People need to take a step back and allow President Trump and the Republican leadership to do their jobs. The left wants nothing more than to fracture the MAGA coalition. They’ve used this playbook before, twisting policy details to divide the movement and weaken its resolve. Don’t fall for it. Stay focused, stay united, and stay on mission.

This is not a departure from America First principles. It is a strategic, constitutional response to a complex problem. Securing the border, enforcing the law, and protecting our economy are not mutually exclusive goals. They must be pursued together.

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Comparison: Crouere's Column & Our Analysis – Why the America Party Hurts Democrats Most

In our earlier article, we laid out five key reasons (plus a bonus) why Elon Musk’s new American Party is far more likely to fracture the Left than disrupt MAGA or the Republican base. Now, Jeff Crouere, in his July 6th column, independently reaches many of the same conclusions and that agreement matters, because very few are saying this out loud.

Here’s where we align:

1. The American Party Doesn’t Threaten MAGA
Crouere notes what we emphasized: Trump holds historic levels of support. Over 90% GOP approval and a 96% win rate for his endorsed candidates. In our piece, we highlighted that the MAGA coalition is built on 80/20 issues, policy wins, and cultural clarity. Elon’s appeal doesn’t dent that loyalty.

2. Democrats Are Disorganized and Vulnerable
Both articles point out that Democrats are fractured, with weak 2028 candidates (Crouere cites Buttigieg at 16%, Kamala Harris at 13%) and no coherent leadership. In our piece, we went further by breaking down how Musk’s platform pulls more from Greens, progressives, and disaffected Dems than from any Republican constituency.

3. Musk Appeals to Left-Leaning Technocrats, Not the Base
We mentioned that Musk’s core base (tech libertarians, green moderates, and pro-EV centrists) overlaps with Dem-leaning independents far more than MAGA. Crouere reinforces this by pointing out that the loudest voices backing Musk’s new party are left-of-center celebrities like Mark Cuban and Anthony Scaramucci.

4. Immigration and Globalism Make Musk a Poor Fit for the Right
Crouere rightly flags Musk’s support of H-1B visas, close ties to China, and his reliance on government subsidies for EVs and AI. We noted similar concerns in our breakdown. This is true particularly in how his economic views and NASA lobbying conflict with America First ideals.

5. This Is Not a Movement. It’s a Disruption Play
Crouere cites Musk’s own words about targeting 2–3 Senate races and 8–10 House seats to influence key legislation. In our article, we labeled this a spoiler strategy, not a serious realignment. And again, spoilers hurt fractured coalitions, not unified ones like MAGA.

Bonus Point From Our Article – The Census Time Bomb

One point we emphasized that Crouere didn’t mention is the MTG Census Bill. If passed, this bill would exclude non-citizens from House seat apportionment, cutting the Democrats’ base by 20–25 House seats and shifting Electoral College votes. That, combined with Musk siphoning voters, could render the Left a permanent minority as Benny Johnson bluntly warned.

 Again...in the end...

So while many pundits still fear Musk will “split the Right,” both our article and Crouere’s make clear: the real risk is to the Democrats. And not enough voices are saying this.

When MAGA is unified, and the Left is fractured, a third party isn’t a threat—it’s a gift.

 

9 years ago, the Dems stage a "sit in" at in the US Capitol 

 

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5 Reasons Why Elon Musk’s ‘American Party’ Won’t Hurt the MAGA Movement

Today, Elon Musk formally announced the creation of a new political movement: The American Party. While mainstream pundits rushed to speculate about a potential “spoiler” effect for Trump’s America First agenda, the reality is far less dramatic.

This is not a threat to MAGA. Here’s 5 (plus a bonus) reasons why.

Elon sporting a black eye. Image - NY Post

 

✅ 1. The MAGA Coalition Is Tight and Built on 80/20 Issues

The America First movement is united around core 80/20 issues: secure borders, strong economy, peace through strength, energy independence, parental rights, and anti-wokeness. These are issues where 80%+ of Americans agree and where Trump leads with clarity, not ambiguity.

Electric Vehicles? That’s not even on the radar for most voters. Elon's niche issue (EV advocacy) is a footnote within the broader MAGA coalition. The EV segment of MAGA voters is tiny, and they overwhelmingly support Trump in spite of his skepticism toward EV mandates.

✅ 2. Musk's Base Comes from the Left and Libertarians, Not MAGA

Let’s do the math. The likely pool of voters for the American Party includes:

  • 🌱 Green Party: ~1–2% nationally

  • 🟡 Libertarian Party: ~2–3% nationally

  • 🔵 Disaffected Democrats: small fraction, especially as Dems implode post-NYC primary

  • 🟥 MAGA defectors: negligible. Approval for Trump is above 90% in GOP primaries

Even in a best-case scenario, Musk is splitting the Left and the Libertarians not MAGA.

Red Eagles politics put it this way:

"Elon's party is tragic news for the already dead Lolbertarian Party Their votes are the only ones that Elon's joke of a party can viably get"


Consider disaffected Democrats. Only a small fraction are likely to defect, especially as the party fractures following the NYC primary debacle. Democrats are already distancing themselves from Rep. Jamaal Bowman, whose far-left antics (including the infamous fire alarm stunt) and alignment with radical activist causes have made him politically radioactive outside progressive bubbles. The establishment wing is in damage control, and as I noted, "The American Party will only split Greens, Democrats, and Libertarians… Dems are already in a civil war due to the NYC race."


✅ 3. Musk Is a Political Novice

Elon may be brilliant in tech and innovation, but he’s bad at politics. Why? Because he’s naïve. He underestimates how deeply entrenched, coordinated, and ruthless the political establishment is.

Larry Schweikart hit the nail on the head:

"Elon is bad at politics because he's naive. He needs to understand how the system works, both at its best and at its worst."

✅ 4. Trump Is the Most Popular Republican Since Reagan

The numbers don’t lie:

  • 🔥 Trump leads the GOP with 63% strong approval, surpassing his 1st-term average of 53%

  • 🧱 Over 95% of Trump-endorsed candidates won their primaries

  • 🇺🇸 His support among core MAGA voters is rock solid, especially post-OBBBA and SCOTUS wins

Larry summed it up:

“Elon needs Trump. Trump don’t need Elon.”


✅ 5. Trump Is Laser-Focused and Unbothered

In a direct quote from Robert Costa, Trump brushed off the Musk noise:

“That’s all I focus on,” Trump said of his presidency. “I don’t focus on anything else.”

He’s not chasing distractions. He’s delivering policy wins, one after another.

Elon’s Plan to Tip the Senate? Not Happening.

Elon’s rumored strategy: cherry-pick 2–3 House seats and maybe a Senate seat to play spoiler by 2028. But even that is a moonshot:

  • The House races Musk is targeting are in blue or swing districts already fractured by infighting

  • Trump’s grassroots infrastructure in those areas is battle-tested

  • Any “spoiler” effect will more likely siphon off Biden-leaning independents, not core GOP

Why the American Party Can’t Break MAGA and Won’t Unite the Left

Disaffected Democrats? That’s a pipe dream. Only a tiny sliver are likely to defect especially in light of the chaos unfolding after the NYC primary.

Democrats are already distancing themselves from radical figures like Rep. Jamaal Bowman, whose far-left antics—like pulling a fire alarm during a congressional vote and championing fringe activist causes have made him a liability. He’s now politically radioactive outside of the progressive Twitter echo chamber.

The Democratic establishment is in full-blown damage control mode, desperately trying to re-center ahead of 2026. And in that climate, Elon Musk’s tech-libertarian populism has zero appeal to their fractured base.

So let’s break it down again:

 

Bonus Reason: The MTG Census Bill Will Reshape the Electoral Map Forever

Perhaps the most devastating blow to the Democratic Party isn’t coming from Elon Musk or third-party spoilers—it’s coming from inside the House. If Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Census Bill is passed and signed into law as part of the America First agenda, the impact will be historic and irreversible. The bill would count only U.S. citizens for purposes of apportioning House seats and Electoral College votes, removing millions of illegal aliens from the political equation.

As Benny Johnson put it:

“Once 20 million criminal aliens are deported, they have no future. No path to power. They’ll lose 25 House seats and every Presidential [election] for a generation. Permanent minority.”

This is the political extinction event Democrats fear most. It would collapse their artificial margins in deep-blue urban districts, shift 20 to 25 House seats, and strip them of key Electoral College votes, effectively locking them out of the White House for generations. It’s not just a policy reform; it’s a generational shift in representation.

Musk’s American Party is a side show. The real realignment is already underway.



In the end, Elon Musk’s new American Party may attract a handful of disaffected Greens, Libertarians, or progressive Democrats caught in their party’s internal collapse. But it will not fracture the MAGA coalition. That coalition remains one of the most disciplined, energized, and policy-driven political forces in American history.

Donald Trump’s support isn’t grounded in personality or media hype. It’s rooted in real accomplishments, a clear vision for the country, and a commitment to the foundational issues that resonate with everyday Americans. The strength of the movement comes from its values: secure borders, economic freedom, energy independence, peace through strength, and a fierce defense of American culture and sovereignty.

Musk may command headlines and court online engagement, but headlines don’t win elections movements do. And the America First movement is not only intact, it’s expanding.

No matter how many new parties Elon tries to launch, the truth is simple: he’s not pulling MAGA voters with him. The base is focused, immovable, and loyal to the mission not the noise.

President Trump continues to lead, not just as a political figure, but as the standard-bearer for a cause that resonates across generations. The MAGA movement is not looking for alternatives. It’s already found its champion.

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