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Ten Strong Indicators Trump Is Poised for Victory in 2024
November 02, 2024
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This analysis draws from the insights shared on the Substack of Seth Keshel, MBA. A former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, Keshel is renowned worldwide for his analytical method of election forecasting. His work, which has been commended by President Donald J. Trump, offers a detailed perspective on voter trends and electoral shifts. Here is a look at ten key indicators suggesting Trump is well-positioned for a strong performance in the 2024 election.


1. Trump’s Narrative Control

Donald Trump’s campaign has evolved significantly since the chaotic 2020 election. While he had the votes to win then, he struggled to control the narrative. The relentless media attacks, amplified narratives of pandemic-era irresponsibility, and doubts about election integrity drowned out his message. Today, Trump has become a master of the media landscape, transforming even setbacks into publicity wins. He has handled assassination threats, legal battles, and media smears with the finesse of a seasoned showman, making appearances from Joe Rogan to local rallies, and even turning his mugshot in Atlanta into a viral sensation. His relatable moments, like serving fries at McDonald's and donning blue-collar attire, have only boosted his visibility and likability. This time, should he claim victory, few would question its legitimacy.

Conversely, Kamala Harris faces an uphill battle, reliant on institutional allies and a media network that seems increasingly hesitant to lend unconditional support. Without Trump-level visibility or grassroots enthusiasm, her candidacy looks fragile, with her campaign banking on media-driven miracles and established connections.


2. Shifts in Party Affiliation

The electoral map has changed drastically since 2020, with party registration trends favoring the GOP. Out of 31 states that register voters by party, 30 have either become more Republican or less Democratic. The sole outlier, Colorado, is moving leftward. This trend is especially pronounced in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and New Hampshire, which have seen marked shifts toward the GOP. Furthermore, Florida and Iowa—peripheral battlegrounds—are leaning much more Republican.

Pennsylvania stands out the most, with 64 of its 67 counties shifting toward the GOP, yielding a net advantage of over 400,000 voters since 2020. Meanwhile, Gallup reports the most Republican-leaning political environment since 2004.

Captain K's Corner

 


3. Striking Early Voting Dynamics

Donald Trump’s call for Republicans to embrace early voting was strategic, aimed at influencing the media narrative. Traditionally, Democrats have relied on early vote leads to demoralize GOP turnout efforts. Yet this cycle tells a different story: Republicans are either leading or seeing more favorable returns. North Carolina’s early voting has a clear GOP edge. Arizona shows a Republican lead exceeding 155,000 ballots. Nevada has Republicans up over 5% in early returns. Georgia’s demographic data suggests strong rural white turnout, while black voter participation in key urban areas is notably low, a pattern unlikely to improve on Election Day.

Pennsylvania’s early voting dynamics are also favorable for the GOP, with returns showing a 20% shift toward Republicans compared to the 2020 race, where Joe Biden barely eked out a win.


4. Miami-Dade: A GOP Bellwether

Miami-Dade County is poised to make history. Currently, early voting turnout is favoring Republicans by 5%, a stunning reversal from its D+3.4% registration index. If Trump wins here, it would mark the first GOP presidential victory in Miami-Dade since 1988. Historically, whenever a Republican presidential nominee carries this county (as seen in elections from 1928 to 1988), they have gone on to win the presidency. This shift signals a seismic change in the Sunshine State’s electoral landscape.


5. The Duval County Indicator

Another key signal in Florida comes from Duval County, home to Jacksonville. This area has historically mirrored Georgia in voting patterns and demographics. Registration in Duval has shifted from D+5.9% in 2020 to just D+1.9% today. Current turnout trends have Republicans leading by 3.5%. If Trump carries Duval, it’s a strong indicator he could also reclaim Georgia and its crucial 16 electoral votes.

Captain K's Corner

6. Early Signs in New York

While presidential elections differ from midterms, New York is showing undeniable signs of a Republican shift. Registration data and unexpectedly competitive races in 2022 hint at a changing political tide. Even though some recent polls show Harris with a wide lead, between August and October, several showed her advantage shrinking to single digits. Historically, when New York trends right, states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Jersey tend to follow. This suggests that the whole Rust Belt could be shifting in Trump’s favor.

https://skeshel.substack.com/p/watch-new-york-2024s-potential-canary

7. Peripheral Indicators and Betting Markets

Beyond voter data, other measures highlight GOP momentum. Betting platforms like PolyMarket and Kalshi show increased confidence in a Republican victory. Additionally, youth polling data, aligned with early voting trends, indicates a surge of support for the GOP among Generation Z, reminiscent of the Reagan-era youth shift in 1984. Democrats’ overreach on progressive issues may have triggered a rebellion among young voters they once counted on.


8. Urban Turnout Disparities

One of the Democrats’ biggest worries is the uneven turnout in urban areas. The traditional male-female voting split has widened to 44/56, as opposed to the typical 48/52. This is concerning for Democrats, whose success depends heavily on mobilizing urban centers. Across key locations, like Fulton County, Georgia, and major cities in Texas, turnout lags behind expectations. Black voter participation has notably declined, and Hispanic support is bleeding to the GOP. Without extraordinary turnout in urban strongholds, Democrats face a steeper climb than in 2020.


9. The Polling Conundrum

Polling remains a polarizing topic, even as reputable firms like Rasmussen and Big Data Poll (Richard Baris) strive for accuracy. Trump currently leads the RealClearPolitics popular vote average by 0.5%, with most battleground states showing favorable trends. Mainstream polls have a history of underestimating Trump’s support, with Wisconsin polls missing by an average of six points in 2020. Minority support for Trump is projected to break GOP records, and early registration data suggests massive gains among non-college-educated white voters.


10. Shifting Endorsements

Remarkably, even traditionally left-leaning newspapers are hesitating to endorse Harris. Outlets like The Washington Post and The Los Angeles Times, loyal to Democrats in past cycles, have remained silent, reflecting doubts about her viability. Their refusal to endorse speaks volumes, given their history of backing Democratic nominees even in contentious races. Like pollsters, these editorial boards may be wary of aligning with a candidate perceived as a potential loser.

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