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Why the 2025 ICE Riots Are Happening: It’s About Power, Not Protest
Updated 6.9.25 10:10am EST
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theARP.org

The unrest that swept through Los Angeles and other blue-state cities in 2025 didn’t come out of nowhere. It wasn’t sparked by a single event or enforcement action. It was the visible edge of a deeper political panic. On social media, grassroots activist Scott Presler distilled the moment with striking clarity. Sharing a map of the projected 2030 congressional apportionment, he warned that due to deportation and interstate migration, Democrats could lose “way more than four House seats in California alone.” His message wasn’t partisan cheerleading. It was a plainspoken recognition of a looming demographic collapse for the Democratic Party. The map he posted tells the story: red states gaining representation, blue states bleeding seats and influence. The protests, Presler implied, weren’t just about immigration; they were about protecting the census math that sustains Democratic control. And that map may explain more about 2025 than any headline.

The Census Clock Is Ticking

Right now, Los Angeles streets are erupting. College campuses turned chaotic. Protesters surrounded ICE field offices. Pundits framed it as a moral battle over immigration. But behind the slogans and signs lies a quieter truth, one that’s not about race, justice, or compassion. It’s about power.

What we’re witnessing isn’t a spontaneous uprising. It’s a coordinated defense of a political system built on population counts. As @The_Prophet_ put it bluntly, “The protests, the riots, the sanctuary city breakdowns. They’re not reactive. They’re preemptive pressure campaigns triggered by the ruling class to preserve the only thing that keeps their machine alive: census-based political power.”

The anger on display isn’t about culture. It’s about arithmetic. And the countdown to the 2030 Census is the clock no one in Washington can afford to ignore.

Why Apportionment Matters

In the United States, representation in the House of Representatives and (by extension, the Electoral College) is based on total population, not citizenship. That means every person residing in a state, including those here illegally, affects how much power that state has in Washington.

For decades, states like California, New York, and Illinois benefited from this arrangement. Mass immigration (both legal and illegal) swelled their populations and expanded their influence. But that advantage is beginning to unravel. Deportations, domestic migration to red states, and declining blue-state birth rates are all contributing to a reshaping of the political map. The 2030 Census will formalize what many already sense: the old Democratic strongholds are losing ground.

The 2030 Forecast: A Shifting Map

According to the American Redistricting Project’s forecast, based on 2023 population estimates, the 2030 Census is set to trigger a dramatic redistribution of political power. California is projected to lose four congressional seats, while New York is expected to lose three. Illinois follows with a loss of two. Six additional states (Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Rhode Island, and West Virginia) are each projected to lose one seat, marking a broad contraction across long-held Democratic strongholds.

On the other side of the ledger, red and right-trending states are gaining ground. Texas is projected to gain four seats, and Florida is close behind with three. Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Utah, Idaho, and Tennessee are each expected to pick up one seat. In total, this amounts to a net shift of 14 congressional seats from blue America to red which would be an electoral and legislative realignment with far-reaching consequences.


A Look Back: What If the 2030 Map Had Been in Place?

The 2022 midterm elections delivered a narrow Republican majority, with the GOP winning 222 seats to the Democrats’ 213 under the existing 2020 apportionment. However, if the projected 2030 congressional map had been in place, the outcome would have looked significantly different.

Republicans would have picked up 11 additional seats from growing states such as Texas (+4), Florida (+3), and others including Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Utah, Idaho, and Tennessee (each gaining +1). At the same time, Democrats would have lost 13 seats due to projected declines in population-heavy blue states like California (−4), New York (−3), and Illinois (−2), along with single-seat losses in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Rhode Island, and West Virginia.

Altogether, this would translate into a net GOP advantage of 24 seats. The adjusted House balance under the 2030 map would be 246 Republicans to 189 Democrats and an overwhelming majority. Under that kind of congressional landscape, a future Republican president would have the legislative runway to reshape national policy with little resistance.

2024 in Retrospect: Trump’s Victory, Amplified

In 2024, Donald Trump returned to the White House after defeating Kamala Harris with 312 electoral votes. He reclaimed key battlegrounds like Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, reshaping the post-Biden electoral landscape.

But under the 2030 electoral map, his margin of victory would have been even larger. States he carried like Texas, Florida, and others in the Sunbelt, are gaining electoral votes. Blue states he lost are shedding them. Trump’s adjusted total would have risen to 325. Harris would have fallen to just 212. No vote totals changed, but the math did.

And it’s that math that has Democrats sounding the alarm, not just for today, but for what’s coming.

Looking Ahead: JD Vance and the 2030 Race

If the political trends hold and JD Vance inherits Trump’s coalition heading into the 2030 election, he will begin the campaign with a baked-in advantage. Based on current population projections, the Electoral College will tilt even further in the GOP’s favor. Vance could lose Pennsylvania or Nevada and still win handily.

The path to victory for Democrats will narrow unless they reverse migration trends or replace lost population through new waves of immigration. Without that, the political map is likely to remain red-leaning into the next decade.

The Left’s Fear of the Numbers

Political analyst Larry Schweikart has described it starkly: “If President Trump deports just TWO million, the electoral equation changes badly for DemKKKcrats. If he deports TEN million, DemoKKKrats will never win another national election.”

That isn’t hyperbole. Deportation and migration don’t just affect local communities; they determine national representation. Every person removed from a blue state through deportation or outbound migration is one fewer counted in the census, one less seat in Congress, and one less electoral vote in the next presidential race.

Inside the Unrest: Organized, Not Organic

These protests are not simply moral expressions. They are part of a broader political operation. Journalist Eric Daugherty reported that the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights of Los Angeles (CHIRLA), a group linked to Democratic fundraising platform ActBlue, was involved in organizing the unrest. CHIRLA, which has received government funding, helped lead protests in coordination with activist networks and media allies.

The strategies were multifaceted:

  • Flood the media with narratives of ICE oppression to build public backlash.

  • Mobilize “rights-based” protests through NGOs like United We Dream.

  • Sue the federal government to block efforts to exclude non-citizens from census counts.

  • Pass state-level sanctuary policies to prevent population loss.

  • Provoke federal enforcement actions to portray deportation as fascism.

None of this was accidental. It was calculated.

2032 Midterms: The GOP’s Moment?

Assuming JD Vance wins in 2030, the 2032 midterms could solidify long-term Republican control. With Democrats already projected to lose 13 seats through reapportionment, the structural math is not on their side. If Vance experiences a typical first-term midterm bump, Republicans could approach 260 House seats. Senate control could follow, particularly if rightward shifts in states like Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania continue.

In the end...The Census Is the Battlefield

These ICE riots were never just about immigration policy. They were about safeguarding political survival. The Democratic Party’s national strength depends on counting people (millions of them) who don’t vote but still impact power. If those people disappear from the census, the foundation of that strength crumbles.

That’s why protests were organized. Why lawsuits were filed. Why narratives were launched before enforcement even began.

Because what the Left fears most isn’t deportation. It’s what comes after.

Disempowerment.

The census is no longer a bureaucratic process. It’s the frontline of the next political war. And it may determine who holds power in America for the next generation.

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Odds of Love: A Probability Study Proving Jasmine Crockett’s Race Baiting Ignores the Real Challenges of Finding a Conservative Black Match

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Representative Jasmine Crockett’s recent criticism of Representative Byron Donalds for marrying a white woman highlights a regressive mindset steeped in ignorance and racial bias, casting doubt on her ability to engage with the diverse realities of American life.

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1906302926571618409

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Biblical Citizenship in Modern America Commentary Ep14 - Understanding the Times 3

00:00 Introduction
02:03 Week 13 review
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Just my opinion, but it seems like a lot of people are grifting off Charlie Kirk’s memory for clicks. I’m not saying everyone, and shoot, I could probably be accused of the same thing. Fair point. My team is waiting for at least the funeral before putting out a full load of content... but the former just doesn’t feel right. Full disclosure: I did a one-hour livestream that night and was a guest on another show a few days later, but that’s about it.

I truly appreciate the sincere takes from people who’ve had the courage to speak. So all I’m really asking for is discernment and tastefulness, at least until after the funeral. But that’s just me, and just my opinion.

What I do know is this: The Left is already spinning (and distracting away from) this. I submit that are trying desperately to ease their guilt, undermine Charlie’s vision, and divide MAGA. They are trying to save their (soon to be out of power for the foreseeable future) Democrat Party.

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🧨 The Deep State’s Attempt to Spin Damning Declassified Evidence

As declassified documents continue to expose what appears to be a coordinated intelligence operation against Donald Trump, the Deep State and their media allies are in full damage-control mode.

Case in point: Fox News just featured an op-ed by former CIA officer and Biden State Department spokesman Ned Price, attempting to “debunk” the bombshells released by DNI Tulsi Gabbard.

Make no bones about it, this isn’t an objective counterpoint. This is a narrative-management operation by a career Deep State insider.

🕵️‍♂️ Here’s What They’re Trying to Sell You:
That Obama couldn’t have led a coup because… he congratulated Trump after the election. (Yes, seriously.)

That Gabbard is using “sleight of hand” and “conflating” terms, even though her claims are backed by declassified U.S. intelligence.

That the 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) was sound , even though multiple internal reviews, the Durham Report, and Senate oversight found evidence it was politicized.

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You must formally bring these individuals under oath to compel their testimony. Whether they answer or invoke the Fifth, the act of subpoenaing is essential to build the official record and demonstrate due diligence in investigating the alleged conspiracy.

2. Indictment Requires Precedent:

Before a prosecutor can credibly seek an indictment (especially against former high-level officials) there must be an evidentiary trail. That includes prior sworn testimony or refusal to testify. Subpoenaing them is a legal and political prerequisite to indictments.

3. Public Opinion Matters:

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Lafayette: The Fire and the Fog

Act 1: Foundations and Fault Lines

In a quiet chateau nestled in the green hills of Auvergne, a boy was born into a name older than most nations. Marie-Joseph Paul Yves Roch Gilbert du Motier—known simply as Gilbert to those who loved him—would grow to be one of history’s most celebrated revolutionaries. But from the very start, Lafayette's world was one of contradictions.

He was born into nobility, yet surrounded by stories of poverty and loss. His father, a decorated grenadier, was killed by a British cannonball before Lafayette ever saw his face. His mother, devastated by grief, fled to Paris, leaving young Gilbert to be raised by his stern but kind grandmother in the countryside. She taught him duty, discipline, and stories of battlefield glory. Under the watchful eyes of abbés and aristocrats, Lafayette soaked in the values of the French Enlightenment. Reason, liberty, the rights of man—these became the drumbeat of his youth.

But knowledge alone doesn’t make a man wise.

From the halls of Paris to the salons of Versailles, Lafayette learned to charm and maneuver. He married Adrienne de Noailles, a fourteen-year-old girl from one of France’s most powerful families. At sixteen, Lafayette was rich, married, and well on his way to joining the king’s elite guard. But behind the courtly elegance, something restless stirred in his heart. He longed for purpose—glory, as he called it. The kind that would echo through time.

So when whispers of rebellion across the Atlantic reached his ears, he was enthralled. America, a land fighting for liberty against the British—the very empire that had taken his father—became an obsession. Even when King Louis XVI forbade it, Lafayette defied him, sneaking across the sea to join George Washington’s struggling army.

From a worldly point of view, it was heroic. A young man leaving behind wealth, a pregnant wife, and privilege to fight for strangers. But beneath the idealism, there was a flaw—a subtle one, but dangerous.

Lafayette believed that man could save himself.

Through reason. Through revolution. Through liberty unanchored from any higher truth.

He didn’t yet understand what the Bible makes clear: that the heart of man is “deceitful above all things” (Jeremiah 17:9), and that liberty without virtue is just another form of chaos. Lafayette loved the idea of freedom, but he lacked a framework that could keep that freedom from becoming an idol. He was, in many ways, a knight in search of a cause—but without a compass pointing to God's moral order.

While Lafayette crossed the Atlantic in search of glory, Adrienne was left behind in Paris, pregnant and alone. She received glowing letters—tales of cannons and courage—but little concern for her own trials. She had married a boy still chasing the ghost of a father he barely knew.

In America, Lafayette was welcomed… reluctantly. The Continental Congress had seen too many glory-seeking Europeans hoping to play general. At first, they dismissed him. But when Lafayette offered to serve without pay, and when they read letters of praise from Benjamin Franklin, they reconsidered. Lafayette was given the honorary title of major-general—though he would command no troops.

He met George Washington soon after, and an unexpected friendship blossomed. Washington, a man of discipline and restraint, took the fiery Frenchman under his wing. Lafayette found in Washington a father figure, and in the American cause, a sense of belonging.

But even as Lafayette fought bravely in battle—earning respect and even suffering wounds—he never stopped chasing applause. And back in France, Adrienne suffered silently, raising children alone, enduring gossip about Lafayette’s rumored mistresses, and using her influence to protect his reputation.

She loved him. He often forgot to love her in return.

The story of Lafayette was already being written in two parallel threads: the public hero, adored on two continents, and the private man, blind to the cost others paid for his ambitions.

Even his noblest efforts—his fight for liberty, his calls to end slavery, his dreams of global reform—were built on a foundation that was subtly cracked.

He believed, as many Enlightenment thinkers did, that humanity was basically good, that progress was inevitable, and that the right ideas could fix the world.

But history—and Scripture—tell a different story.

"Unless the Lord builds the house, the builders labor in vain." (Psalm 127:1)

Lafayette’s foundation was bold. But it wasn’t biblical.

And the storm was coming.

Let me know if you're ready for Act 2: Fallout and Fractures. It will dive into the French Revolution, betrayal from both sides, Adrienne’s suffering, and the unraveling of Lafayette’s ideals.


Act 2: Fallout and Fractures


The smell of smoke lingered in the Paris air. The Bastille had fallen. The people roared. The king trembled. And in the center of it all stood Lafayette—beloved by some, cursed by others, and no longer sure who he truly was.

 

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Slavery, Union, and Constitutional Compromise: A Study of the Crittenden Compromise and the Corwin Amendment (1860–1861)

Abstract

This article explores two major political proposals advanced in the final months before the American Civil War: the Crittenden Compromise (1860) and the Corwin Amendment (1861). Both efforts sought to preserve the Union through constitutional concessions on slavery. We examine their content, motivations, political support and opposition, and how they reflected  (and ultimately failed to resolve) the irreconcilable tensions between North and South. Special attention is given to the evolving role of President-elect and later President Abraham Lincoln, whose principled opposition to slavery’s expansion shaped Republican resistance to compromise efforts. The article situates these proposals within a broader constitutional framework of federalism, natural rights, and the limits of amendment power.

I. Introduction

In the months following Abraham Lincoln’s election in November 1860, the United States faced an unprecedented crisis. Southern states began seceding from the Union, fearing that a Republican administration would restrict or abolish slavery. As secessionist sentiment grew, Congress and national leaders proposed several last-ditch efforts to avoid civil war through constitutional compromise. Among the most notable were the Crittenden Compromise, introduced in December 1860, and the Corwin Amendment, proposed in early 1861. Though differing in scope and content, both proposals reflect the extent to which the federal government was willing to entrench slavery in constitutional law in hopes of maintaining Union.

II. The Crittenden Compromise

A. Background and Purpose

On December 18, 1860, Senator John J. Crittenden of Kentucky introduced a series of six proposed constitutional amendments and four congressional resolutions, collectively known as the Crittenden Compromise. Crittenden, a member of the Constitutional Union Party, sought to calm Southern fears and avert secession by providing federal guarantees for slavery.

B. Main Provisions

The core elements of the compromise included:

  • A constitutional amendment reinstating the Missouri Compromise line (36°30′ N latitude), permanently prohibiting slavery north of the line and guaranteeing it south of the line in current and future U.S. territories (U.S. Senate Journal, 36th Cong., 2nd Sess., 1860).

  • A prohibition on Congress interfering with slavery in states where it already existed.

  • A federal guarantee for enforcement of fugitive slave laws.

  • A requirement that future constitutional amendments could not abolish or interfere with slavery in slaveholding states.

C. Reception and Defeat

The Crittenden Compromise was broadly supported by Southern politicians and some Northern moderates, but strongly opposed by Republicans, including Lincoln, who rejected any compromise that would allow the expansion of slavery into new territories. Through backchannels and private correspondence, Lincoln discouraged Republican senators from supporting the proposal (Basler, Collected Works of Abraham Lincoln, Vol. 4, p. 152).

The compromise ultimately failed in committee in January 1861, and its defeat accelerated Southern secession.

III. The Corwin Amendment

A. Introduction and Legislative History

In the aftermath of the Crittenden proposal’s failure and with several states having already seceded, Representative Thomas Corwin of Ohio introduced a new constitutional amendment intended to reassure the South. The Corwin Amendment passed the House on February 28, 1861, and the Senate on March 2, 1861, just days before Lincoln’s inauguration.

The proposed text read:

“No amendment shall be made to the Constitution which will authorize or give to Congress the power to abolish or interfere, within any State, with the domestic institutions thereof, including that of persons held to labor or service by the laws of said State.”
— Congressional Globe, 36th Cong., 2nd Sess. (1861)

B. Purpose and Scope

Unlike the Crittenden Compromise, which addressed slavery in territories, the Corwin Amendment focused exclusively on preserving slavery in existing states, permanently prohibiting Congress or any future constitutional amendment from interfering with state domestic institutions, including slavery.

It was a more limited proposal, intended as a symbolic assurance to slave states that the federal government would not abolish slavery where it existed, even under future administrations.

C. Lincoln’s Position

Though a longtime opponent of slavery’s expansion, Lincoln endorsed the Corwin Amendment in his first inaugural address on March 4, 1861:

“I have no objection to its being made express and irrevocable.”
— Abraham Lincoln, First Inaugural Address (1861)

Lincoln directed Secretary of State William Seward to send the amendment to the states for ratification. Some states, including Ohio and Maryland, ratified it, but the amendment never achieved the necessary approval from three-fourths of the states, especially as war broke out shortly after.

IV. Comparative Analysis

FeatureCrittenden CompromiseCorwin Amendment
ProposedDec 1860Feb–Mar 1861
ProposerSen. John Crittenden (KY)Rep. Thomas Corwin (OH)
Key ObjectiveAllow slavery south of 36°30′ in territoriesConstitutionally prohibit federal interference with slavery in states
Lincoln’s ViewOpposedSupported (as peace gesture)
StatusRejected in committeePassed Congress; unratified
Amendment NatureMultiple amendments and resolutionsSingle proposed amendment
Historical ResultFailed to prevent secessionSuperseded by Civil War and 13th Amendment


V. Constitutional and Originalist Considerations

A. Federalism and State Sovereignty

The Corwin Amendment affirmed the federalist structure of the Constitution, where states retained authority over domestic institutions, including slavery. Its logic aligned with the Madisonian view that powers not delegated to the federal government remained with the states (see Federalist No. 45).

B. Limits on Constitutional Amendment Power

The Corwin Amendment attempted to shield certain subjects from future amendment. Although Article V allows for limitations (as with the equal suffrage of states in the Senate), many legal scholars debate whether any constitutional amendment can permanently bar future amendments. This raises complex issues about constitutional entrenchment.

C. Slavery and the Founding Vision

The Crittenden and Corwin proposals represent divergent paths in response to a growing national crisis. While the Founding generation accepted slavery as a temporary evil (e.g., Madison at the Constitutional Convention), these 1860–1861 efforts reflect a move to permanently constitutionalize an institution many of the founders viewed as incompatible with natural rights.

VI. Conclusion

Both the Crittenden Compromise and the Corwin Amendment reveal the lengths to which American politicians were willing to go to preserve the Union through accommodation of slavery. However, their failure also underscores the irreconcilability of a republic founded on liberty with a system built on bondage. Abraham Lincoln’s careful balancing act was opposing slavery’s expansion while tolerating its existence where entrenched, framed the constitutional limits of compromise.

With the firing on Fort Sumter on April 12, 1861, the era of compromise ended. The actual 13th Amendment, ratified in 1865, would abolish slavery entirely,  reversing the direction of both earlier proposals and reaffirming the Declaration’s principle that all men are created equal.

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The Prophet of Progress: Woodrow Wilson's Road to Power and Ruin

Act I: Foundations and Fault Lines


Thomas Woodrow Wilson was born in 1856 into a deeply religious Southern Presbyterian family. His father, Joseph Ruggles Wilson, was a respected minister and educator. His mother, Janet—called Jessie—was a devoted Scottish churchwoman. From the outside, the Wilson home seemed soaked in Scripture and tradition, but beneath the surface, a different foundation was quietly forming.

As a boy, “Tommy” Wilson was clever but struggled to read until age twelve—what today might be considered dyslexia. Still, he grew to admire ideas and institutions more than people. Though he spent his childhood in the Confederate South during the Civil War, the conflict seemed to leave little mark on him emotionally. His loyalties remained Southern, though, and he absorbed the white supremacist thinking that had gripped post-war Democratic circles.

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