The Fordo Dilemma: Strategic Limits and the High Stakes of a U.S. Strike Under President Trump
Taking out Iran's Fordo nuclear enrichment facility presents an immense military and strategic challenge due to its location and construction. The plant is deeply embedded into a mountain, with an estimated 80 meters of hardened rock shielding its key infrastructure. This is far beyond the reach of Israel's conventional bunker buster bombs and pushing the limits of America's most powerful non-nuclear penetrator, the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), which is believed to be capable of penetrating roughly 18 to 30 meters of reinforced concrete or rock. Even with multiple precision strikes, the difficulty of hitting the exact same spot to “drill” into the mountain is high due to rubble refilling cavities and guidance limitations. More critically, neutralizing the entire facility would likely require dozens of GBU-57s targeting different parts of the 250-meter-long tunnel system. Given the U.S. reportedly has fewer than 100 of these bombs, such an operation would consume a significant portion (possibly up to a third) of its strategic stockpile, at a time when maintaining readiness against peer threats like China is paramount. Crucially, nothing can afford to go wrong in such a strike; if the effort fails to fully neutralize Fordo, ground troops may be the only remaining option. This is a scenario President Trump, firmly committed to avoiding new foreign entanglements, is highly unlikely to authorize. Iran likely recognizes this constraint and, emboldened, is refusing to back down, continuing to reinforce the site from the air and preparing for a prolonged standoff.
So how does Trump move forward without violating MAGA’s core principles? Here is our Conservative TAKE.
For MAGA Isolationists:
Trump can refuse to authorize a ground invasion, reaffirming his commitment to no new wars. He can consult Congress in advance of any strike, satisfying constitutionalists and setting the legal foundation for action. If Fordo is to be hit, it must be part of a limited strike package, not regime change.
For MAGA Jacksonians:
Trump can present Fordo as the exception that proves the rule: a doomsday facility that cannot be allowed to survive. He can use overwhelming force but limit the mission’s scope: "One night, one objective"...then pull back. The messaging? “We will not occupy Iran. But we will make sure they never build a nuke.”
This approach threads the needle: it respects the isolationist demand for restraint and legality, while meeting the Jacksonian insistence on deterrence and strength.
In short: no invasion, but no hesitation.
